West Virginia managed to do something no other team could this season, and is on its way to the Big 12 Conference championship game. The Mountaineers silenced conference player of the year Buddy Hield and escaped with a semifinal win. They will try to prevent Kansas from winning its 10th conference tournament title when the two play the rubber match on Saturday.
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HOW THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Mountaineers survived a waived off last-second Buddy Hield halfcourt shot to defeat Oklahoma and advance to Saturday’s championship game. After not winning a tournament game since joining the conference, WVU is a victory away from taking the title.
“We came to win,” said WVU coach Bob Huggins. And they did so by locking down on national player of the year candidate Hield, holding him to a season-low six points.
West Virginia is relentless on the defensive side and is the best at forcing turnovers. In a pair of losses to OU during the regular season, that didn’t happen. It did Friday night. The Mounties forced 21 Sooners turnovers and converted many into points that proved to be the difference.
The pressure will have to be dialed up on Saturday for WVU to get another win over Kansas. In the first meeting of the year, a 74-63 WVU win, the Mountaineers forced 22 turnovers and held the Jayhawks to a season-low point total. Kansas shot better than 56 percent from the field in the rematch and came away with a 10-point victory. Defense is the key for WVU. Force turnovers and bad shots and the likelihood of a victory increases.
HOW THE KANSAS JAYHAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Don’t mistake the final score for Kansas’ semifinal win over Baylor being close. It wasn’t. The Jayhawks built a comfortable second half lead, and when coach Bill Self pulled his starters with a few minutes left, the Bears made it interesting.
Kansas is built to handle the pressure that WVU will try and deliver. The two point guard system installed by Self has been handled masterfully by Devontae’ Graham and Frank Mason. They will dish to Perry Ellis and make the Mounties pay with smart decisions against the press.
The catalyst for the Jayhawks during their 14-game winning streak has been Ellis. The all-conference performer had 21 points on 8 of 11 shooting in Thursday’s win over Kansas State before scoring 20 on Friday to help the Jayhawks advance to another final.
The Jayhawks will have an advantage with the game being played in their backyard and must handle WVU’s pressure. The two point guard lineup is designed specifically to counter teams like West Virginia. If they can, the Jayhawks will enter the NCAA Tournament riding a 15-game winning streak.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Mountaineers hope to give their NCAA Tournament seeding a lift with their fourth win in six meetings with Kansas. The teams split during the regular season with each winning on its home floor. Kansas coach Bill Self said his team “got punked” in a 74-63 road loss. The Jayhawks, however, got even on Feb. 9 when Ellis scored 21 in the 75-65 home win. Now comes the rubber game in the series on a neutral court. Kansas is playing splendid basketball right now – at least its starters are – and will have an edge with the game so close to home. Largely overlooked is how well the Jayhawks play defense. They held Baylor to 27.3 percent from three-point range and 39 percent overall. Another effort like that and it won’t matter what West Virginia does on its end of the floor.
Kansas 72, West Virginia 65
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