At the outset of the NCAA Tournament, most were in agreement that the North Carolina Tar Heels were the team to beat. If Roy Williams' team was playing at its best, no one was supposed to be able to beat it.
However, the Villanova Wildcats came up with their biggest game of the season against the Oklahoma Sooners in the Final Four, yet another sign that they just keep getting better and better as this tournament wears on. If they play like they did on Saturday against UNC on Monday night, we could very well see an upset in Houston.
NCAA Tournament Odds at BookMaker.eu
Villanova Wildcats +2
North Carolina Tar Heels -2
Over/Under 151
Villanova is surely going to have some problems in this game countering North Carolina's size. The Tar Heels are going to be the significantly bigger and more athletic team, and Daniel Ochefu is going to have his hands full for sure against Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson and the rest of the bigs which Williams will bring off of the bench in the title game.
However, there's definitely reason to think that the Wildcats have the makeup to give the Tar Heels lots of problems.
The biggest matchup advantage we see for Villanova is that of Ryan Arcidiacono against Marcus Paige. Paige is a senior, and he's played incredibly well in this tournament. That said, he's had a history of really struggling against top flight point guards, and when his outside shots aren't falling, he tends to press himself into shooting the ball more than he should.
You're not going to find a bigger pain in the neck defender than Arcidiacono. His stats don't jump off the page, but his on-the-ball skill is second to none in the backcourt of all of the teams which came to Houston for the Final Four, and Paige could have his hands full as a result.
Let's also not forget that Johnson is going to have to figure out how to defend against someone in this Villanova backcourt, one which effectively deploys four guards at all times. We know that Johnson has the speed to be able to do so against Jalen Brunson or Kris Jenkins, but it's not an ideal matchup from UNC's standpoint.
But the real key for the Wildcats will be efficiency. They've shot 59 percent from the field in this tournament thus far, including a blistering 71 percent against Oklahoma, a pretty darn good defensive team in its own right.
Even though it's not likely that the Tar Heels will allow Villanova to shoot in the high-50 percent range in this one, we're not discounting the ability for the Wildcats to make all of the big shots near the end of the shot clock to frustrate the top dogs from the ACC.
Sure, we'd really rather see Villanova getting a few more points in this game, but this team was ranked No. 1 in the nation for a good chunk of the season for a reason. The Big East didn't have a great NCAA Tournament, but the Wildcats could prove to be the exception to the rule.
These Cats have been tired of getting told about all of their March collapses. Now, it's their time to shine, and they've got plenty of reason to stake a claim to the National Championship on Monday night.
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the Villanova Wildcats and North Carolina Tar Heels will go down Monday, April 4, 2016 at 9:18 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium. The matchup will be televised live on TBS.
