It’s been more than a decade since these two teams last met, with the Commodores topping the Shockers 65-63 in a March Madness showdown. This time around, they’re playing for the honor of taking on No. 6 Arizona. Each lost in their conference finals, but strong winning streaks prior to that help make this one of the more intriguing First four tussles in recent history.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Vanderbilt Commodores +3.5
Wichita State Shockers –3.5
HOW THE WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Shockers got off to a slow start this season which really cost them, still they’ve got a chance to advance to the field of 64. Prior to losing to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley semifinals, the Shockers had strung together 19 wins through 21 tries.
The Shockers boast the best defense in college basketball according to the numbers. They’re allowing only 59.2 PPG and have held the opposition under 60 points in 13 of their last 15 games.
The offense is a little suspect for Wichita State, but it is able to put points on the board as well as preventing points. Add nearly a double digit difference in rebounds per game versus rebounds allowed per game.
As for individual contributors, Fred VanVleet is a two time conference player of the year and Ron Baker gives the team a nice one-two punch in the backcourt.
Baker’s notched 237 3-point shots in his career and the play on the perimeter could be a difference maker for the Shockers. His shooting game was off against Northern Iowa and that cost his team, but if he’s got a hot hand, the Shockers could ride that to the field of 64.
HOW THE VANDERBILT COMMODORES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Big wins over Kentucky, Texas A&M and Florida helped push the Commodores into this game.
After beating Texas A&M earlier in the year, the Commodores lost to the Aggies in the conference tournament limiting their chance at an even better seeding. Still, Vanderbilt is in a nice position to surprise given the chance and given its record against some of the better teams.
The Commodores are also well positioned for Tuesday’s game with a clear height advantage. Inside, the Shockers—even with their defense—will have a tough time stopping 7’0” center Damian Jones. The mountain of a man is averaging 14.2 PPG and sinking nearly 60 percent of his shots.
Jeff Roberson and Luke Kornet are also strong frontcourt players. Kornet in particular is a stout defender with a team high 82 blocks and 7.2 RPG. It’ll be up to Wade Baldwin IV and Matthew Fisher-Davis to matchup with Baker and VanVleet inside to lead the Commodores to victory.
As for the opposition, the defense is strong, but the Shockers got just 28-points from their starters in their last game. Vandy did much better with four double-digit performances.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
This has the potential to be a really great game, so look for it to be close and come down to the wire. You’re dealing with two strong franchises with a combined 27 NCAA Tournament appearances.
The Shockers performance since their 5-5 start is rather encouraging, but three straight losses ATS is rather concerning for those looking to back the Shockers. The Commodores, of course, have dropped two straight ATS, but are 5-3 ATS in their last eight.
All in all, the big difference here is Jones and, to a lesser extent, Kornet. I don’t think the Shockers have the answer to Vandy’s height advantage with the Commodores also stacking up reasonably well with Wichita State outside.
Vanderbilt 73, Wichita State 71
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