It’s been a bad year for the Ohio State Buckeyes and it won’t get better any time soon, especially with the Big Ten co-leader Wisconsin Badgers next on the docket. The Buckeyes have won at least 20 games in each of the past 12 seasons and haven’t missed the NCAA Tournament in consecutive years in a decade. But those two streaks are in serious jeopardy unless OSU can miraculously pull it together for a late season run. The only hope they have of making the NCAA’s is to win the Big Ten Tournament, and the way they’re playing, that’s not going to happen.
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Following a two-game losing streak that dropped them into a tie with Purdue, the Badgers bounced back with a big home win over Maryland on Sunday. Wisconsin will look to keep pace with the Boilermakers atop the Big Ten, but needs some help to claim the regular season title. Wisconsin lost to Purdue earlier in the team’s only meeting. So beating Ohio State is almost a necessity. The Badgers won 89-66 as a 10.5-point favorite when the clubs played in Madison on Jan. 12, but they are just 3-7 ATS since then.
Ohio State guaranteed Thad Matta would have a losing league record for the first time in his coaching career with Saturday’s 58-57 loss to Nebraska. The game, marred by mistakes and sloppy play, was a microcosm of the Buckeyes season. It was also their third straight defeat and fifth in the last seven games where OSU has gone just 1-6 ATS. The Buckeyes have been a bad bet all season, going 9-17 ATS and have failed to cover in their last three home games.
Last Meeting
The Badgers need wins to keep pace with Purdue at the top of the Big Ten standings, and they already have a convincing victory over the Buckeyes earlier this season. That game was in Madison, so we have to take that into account, but Wisconsin’s 89-66 victory was impressive nonetheless. The Badgers did everything they wanted to against OSU, hitting 49 percent from the field and an even better 54.5 percent from behind the arc.
The frontcourt of Nigel Hayes, Ethan Happ and Vitto Brown owned the glass, taking advantage of the Buckeyes without Keita Bates-Diop. UW grabbed 21 offensive boards and outrebounded OSU 43-31 and was never threatened. The frontcourt is solid with Happ and Hayes leading the team in scoring and rebounding, but when the guard play of Bronson Koenig and Zak Showalter keeps pace, the Badgers can be unstoppable.
Injury Report
Bates-Diop hasn’t played since Jan. 1, but his loss was impactful and will continue to be throughout the remainder of the season. The Buckeyes lack the superstar player that other programs possess and therefore, depth is a necessity to win games. Bates-Diop’s numbers weren’t glamorous, he averaged 9.7 points and 5.2 rebounds per game while on the floor, but the Buckeyes were a respectable 10-4 prior to his season-ending leg injury.
It’s been a downhill trend since then. OSU has gone 5-9 SU and ATS without Bates-Diop and they’ve been unable to compete against the deeper teams in the Big Ten and equally poor defending the post and grabbing rebounds. Ohio State has learned to play without their big man, but they haven’t learned how to win without him.
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Koenig missed a game last week and the Badgers were dealt a loss by Michigan. The gritty guard isn’t the team’s leading scorer, he isn’t even the second-best scorer on the team, but he’s probably the most important player. He returned from his leg injury and played 31 minutes off the bench in Sunday’s win over Maryland. The team underwent some scoring difficulty, which was compounded by Koenig’s injury, but the group looked more poised with their leader back on the court.
Poise is something the Buckeyes have lacked most of the season and the team has looked listless playing out the string. A bevy of mistakes cost them against Nebraska over the weekend in a game OSU should have won. There’s no pressure on the Buckeyes now, so they could be dangerous. However, they lack the necessary pieces to defeat Wisconsin.
College Basketball Odds: Wisconsin 74, Ohio State 61
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