The Wisconsin Badgers are making a late-season charge and stirring things up in the Big Ten. They can help their NCAA tournament hopes with a seventh straight win and really make a mess at the top of the league standings with an upset of No. 2 Maryland. The Terps escaped Madison with a narrow victory on a late Melo Trimble three last month.
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HOW THE WISCONSIN BADGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Wisconsin is on a roll. Following a stretch in which the Badgers lost four of five, they have reeled off six consecutive wins, the longest streak in the Big Ten, after a 72-61 win over Nebraska on Wednesday night. But they still haven’t done enough to put them solidly in the NCAA tournament. They can improve their chances and extend the winning streak by beating No. 3 Maryland.
There was a time this season that facing a zone defense would have petrified the Badgers. After their first 22 games, they ranked near the bottom of the Big Ten in three-point shooting, making only 33.3 percent of their attempts.
Opponents began to clog the middle, forcing the Badgers to shoot from the perimeter. Wisconsin’s only recourse was to start hitting outside shots. And they have. Bronson Koenig regained his touch and the others soon followed. Jordan Hill, Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown have all shot better than 50 percent from behind the arc in the past two games
Instead of settling for three point shots, the Badgers are now working for open looks and taking advantage of what the defense gives them. That philosophy has translated into a much more efficient offense, and in turn a nice, long winning streak.
HOW THE MARYLAND TERRAPINS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Not only is Maryland good, they also don’t lose at home. The Terps set a school record with their 27th consecutive home victory, taking a break from their rigorous Big Ten schedule to dismantle D-II Bowie State on Tuesday. Coach Mark Turgeon didn’t want his club to have a full week off, so a date with the Bulldogs kept the team’s rhythm.
And it was a good tune up for the remainder of the schedule. Maryland’s reserves saw plenty of action, but each member of the usual starting five played at least 16 minutes and escaped without injury. The mid-season exhibition allowed backups Michael Cekovsky, Jaylen Brantley, Varun Ram and Jared Nickens to play around 20 minutes, a good thing considering they don’t see a lot of action during games against D-I competition.
Trimble has had several big nights for the Terps this season, one of the reasons why he was named to the Late Season Top 20 list for the John Wooden Award. One of his bigger evenings came on Jan. 9 in Madison when his late three-pointer gave him 21 points and lifted the Terps to a 63-60 win.
Maryland escaped that first meeting with little help from Rasheed Sulaimon, Jake Layman and Diamond Stone, who was coming off the bench at the time. More production from three-fifths of the starters should result in a bigger win.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Wisconsin figured out how to run its offense and the results have been quite favorable. Coach Greg Gard said the team was taking too many three-point shots earlier this season, even when they were missing 66.7 percent of their tries. The offensive efficiency has risen with the play of Nigel Hayes, who has gotten away from launching threes. Working down low as the only real post threat, Hayes has scored the bulk of his points recently at the foul line. He could give Maryland’s Robert Carter and Stone a hard time with his array of moves in the block. And like we’ve seen, the Terps have a short bench and foul trouble could prove costly. But Maryland has a huge advantage in the backcourt with Melo and Sulaimon and those two will get the better of the Badgers. The Terps squeaked by Wisconsin on the road last month, thanks to a game-winning three from Trimble, who scored one-third of the team’s points. With a little more help from Sulaimon, Stone and Layman, the Terps should get a win at home by more than the three-point margin they enjoyed in Madison.
Maryland 74, Wisconsin 65
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