The Badgers are playing their best basketball of the season riding a seven-game winning streak and going 7-0 ATS at the same time. The run started with a win over Sparty one month ago as a 6.5-point underdog.
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HOW THE WISCONSIN BADGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Once headed toward the NIT, the Badgers’ win on Saturday night was their boldest statement yet that they are not to be excluded from the NCAA tournament. Wisconsin’s win over the heavily favored Terrapins – at Maryland, in front of a raucous crowd in convincing end-to-end fashion – marked their seventh in a row in Big Ten play.
A simple change employed by interim coach Greg Gard has the Badgers back to playing the style of basketball that made Wisconsin so successful under former coach Bo Ryan. Gradually, UW laid the groundwork for its remarkable run of current success.
This team needed more structure, more passing, more forced movement. It’s taken a while, but the Badgers are getting close to where they need to be. Wisconsin scored more than one point per possession in just one of their first nine losses. The other eight featured some of the worst, most stagnant offense in recent Badgers history.
And, let’s face it, this group isn’t as skilled as their predecessors, which made the transition even more important. During their win streak the Badgers have scored 1.13 points per possession. On Saturday, on the road against the Big Ten’s best per-possession defense, Wisconsin averaged 1.11.
HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It’s a rarity in today’s world of college basketball, but the Spartans are enjoying it. Michigan State is led by a trio of seniors who have increasingly led the Spartans as they have reasserted themselves back in the national title picture in the past three weeks.
Recent wins against Maryland and Michigan were as equally senior-heavy as Sunday’s defeat of Indiana. In the year of the senior across college basketball, Michigan State is as senior-led as anyone.
The biggest performer for the Spartans is Denzel Valentine, who turned in one of his best efforts Sunday in what has been a standout season. He went for 30 points, 13 assists and five rebounds, on Valentine’s Day nonetheless. Forward Matt Costello added a career-high 22 points and 11 rebounds. The 14 points contributed by Bryn Forbes seemed quiet by comparison.
This is the way big mid-February wins should come, in coach Tom Izzo’s world. “Our three seniors were the difference,” he said. And there is plenty to be said about the leadership upperclassmen provide. That’s one area where the Spartans have a decided advantage.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Winning does a lot for the confidence of a team. And the Badgers are a very confident group right now after seven straight wins. Wisconsin looked like a completely different club from the non-conference portion of its schedule while dismantling Maryland over the weekend. It’s taken some time under Gard, but the Badgers’ drastic improvement hasn’t gone unnoticed. They answered every Maryland run on Saturday and the buckets came from everywhere: from Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes, as expected, but also from Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown. The rotation is deeper. The touches are spread more evenly. The ball is moving. Players are moving. The basketball feels good now and Wisconsin can feel the difference. The Badgers’ current run started with a 77-76 home win over Michigan State and the Badgers now have a feeling of invincibility.
Wisconsin 74, Michigan State 69
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan State Spartans will go down Tuesday, February 18, 2016 at 9 p.m. ET at the Breslin Center. The matchup will be televised live on ESPN.
