A lot of attention has been paid to the top half of the East Region where Indiana and Kentucky battled in a classic for the right to face North Carolina, but the better finishes have clearly been in the bottom half of the bracket. Both the Wisconsin Badgers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish advanced to the Sweet 16 on buzzer beaters, and they'll be ready for battle against one another on Friday night.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin Badgers +1
Notre Dame Fighting Irish –1
Over/Under 130.5
HOW THE WISCONSIN BADGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Oh these tricky Badgers! Wisconsin really looked like it was going home late in the second half, as it was down 58-50 with less than six minutes to play, and Nigel Hayes, Vitto Brown and Ethan Happ were all in foul trouble.
That's when Bronson Koenig really took over. The little man hit a whopping six threes, including the one which tied the game and the one which won it at the buzzer.
We claimed all year long that Wisconsin had to get some offense elsewhere aside from Nigel Hayes, and finally, on the biggest stage, Happ and Koenig really stepped up to combine for 38 points, while Brown had a dozen. In fact, Hayes only went 2-of-10 from the field, and he scored just six points.
That said, the few days off should be good for Hayes. He's 0-for-11 from beyond the arc in the dance, and he'll have to make some outside shots in addition to getting the help offensively to win this game.
HOW THE NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Fighting Irish have to make sure the tempo of this game is at least somewhat crisp. When the Badgers were struggling with the Musketeers, the tempo of the game was at least reasonable. If Notre Dame gets into this bloodbath with scores paced out to be in the 50s, there's no way that it can win.
It isn't tough enough physically or mentally in our estimation for that type of game against a team which has so much experience in this stage of the tournament.
Hitting the glass is going to be crucial. For as physically gifted as Wisconsin is, it isn't the biggest team in the world. Rex Pfleuger only averages 2.3 points per game, but he got the biggest offensive rebound and stick back of the year to take a loss and turn it into a win on a wild Sunday against Stephen F. Austin.
It was one of the 11 offensive rebounds the Irish had in that game, and they're now +16 on the boards in two games here in the NCAAs.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
This is going to be a heck of a game as we see it, but we think the Badgers are going to end up prevailing assuming that Hayes gets his act together offensively. The Fighting Irish still tend to get sloppy with the basketball. That might've worked against a jump shooting team like Michigan and a Stephen F. Austin team which isn't used to playing against the big boys like Notre Dame, but it won't work against Wisconsin, a physical team which limits possessions.
We suspect this game will end up being played at a snail's pace, one which will clearly benefit the Badgers. They'll hit just a couple more big shots in this game like they did against Pittsburgh, and that will once again send them to the Elite Eight.
Wisconsin 56, Notre Dame 52
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