We have an interesting matchup between two strong defensive programs set to meet in the second Big Ten Conference Semifinal game on Saturday night as the Wisconsin Badgers and Northwestern Wildcats set to take to the floor in the nation’s capital. Northwestern shocked Maryland in the quarterfinals to get to this point, but the Wildcats have their first ever NCAA Tournament to keep them motivated and dangerous.
This war on the floor in the Big Ten Conference Tournament will go down Saturday, March 11, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at the Verizon Center in Washington, DC. The game will be televised live on CBS.
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Wisconsin is the higher ranked team and has the better team on paper, but the Badgers didn’t exactly reach the regular season finish line in a sprint. Instead, they ended in a slump, losing five of their last seven games.
Even so, Wisconsin still came into the tournament with the second best odds to win the whole thing after a Purdue team that was already upset. Northwestern, however, could be a tough competitor. They’ve already beaten Wisconsin on the road.
The Wildcats have covered the spread now in four of their last five games and are 19-11 ATS this season. Wisconsin’s ATS numbers haven’t been nearly as good. After beating Indiana, they have won back-to-back games both SU and ATS, but were 1-7 ATS leading up to that. That lone win came against the same Maryland team that the Wildcats just toppled to get to this semifinal showdown.
Key Stat
Don’t sleep on Northwestern. This is a team has plenty to play for and Chris Collins has the Wildcats playing efficient basketball.
Wisconsin will get all the love in the matchup of these two defenses, but the Wildcats are no slouches. They’re a top-30 defense according to their defensive efficiency rating which ranks them No. 29 at 95.3 according to Ken Pom.
With this Badgers a team focused on defense, the Wildcats have the ability to play that same game. These two teams will keep the score low with defense first and very similar PPG and field goal percentage numbers on offense.
Last Meeting
In the last meeting between these two teams, the Wildcats beat the Badgers in Wisconsin without Scottie Lindsey on the floor.
Northwestern came out strong, gaining a nine point lead at the half and did plenty to hold on to the advantage, ultimately winning by seven despite entering play as 11.5-point underdogs. Given the way the season’s played out from there, this spread should be much smaller, but once against we’ll see the Badgers as the odds-on favorites.
We got a rather low scoring affair back in February and are likely in for another one given Wisconsin’s stout defense.
Even with the Badgers slowing down the pace of play, the Wildcats were able to make the most of their chances, shooting a respectable 44.8-percent from the floor and a very strong 41.2-percent from three-point range.
Without Lindsey, Bryant McIntosh played a huge role, shooting 10-for 23 with 25 total points scored along with seven assists and seven rebounds.
Meanwhile, on the other side, Nigel Hayes scored 13 points, but the team’s other two big name players—Ethan Happ and Bronson Koenig—combined for just 11 points.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
If you are looking to ride an upset in tomorrow’s action, this game could be an interesting choice. It’s hard to fully back the No. 6 ranked team in the tournament, but they did just take down Maryland and are 2-2 this season against the top four teams in the conference, including having already beaten this Wisconsin team without Lindsey.
Lindsey is now back in action though he may still not be 100-percent after coming down with mono, but he’s been playing better basketball his last few games and looks to be back in form.
In the end, he, McIntosh and Vic Law form a nice little trio that can cover the parameter as well as inside the paint. Let’s also not forget that this Wildcats team is extremely motivated. They’ve never made it to the Big Dance and with a nice showing here in the Big Ten Conference tournament, they may have already booked their ticket, but as a bubble team, they will look to continue to build their resume in preparation for Selection Sunday.
All in all, the Badgers are struggling badly. They’ve look downright awful against conference opponents of late and are going against a team that’s already found a winning formula against them.
College Basketball Odds: Northwestern 67, Wisconsin 64
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