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The No. 7 seed Xavier Musketeers knew entering the Big East tournament that they likely had to win it in order to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. They’re now just two wins away from doing just that and will look to advance to the title game on Friday night when they run up against the No. 6 Creighton Blue Jays. Both of these teams played to a pair of tightly contested games that went right down to the wire in the regular season, so the MSG crowd looks to be in for a treat.
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The X-Men’s run to the semifinals is very surprising considering how poorly Chris Mack’s squad closed out the regular season. The club looked to have recovered from losing point guard Edmond Sumner at the end of January with four straight wins, but then went on to drop six straight games to ultimately cost themselves a top seed in this tournament. They closed the regular season out with a home win and cover against DePaul, and then beat the Blue Demons again in the first round. Not to be outdone, they then went out and avenged a bitter home defeat to Butler by toppling the Bulldogs 62-57 as 6 point dogs. The win moved them to a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread on neutral courts.
Creighton also lost a key player to its roster when Maurice Watson Jr. succumbed to the injury bug against Xavier back on January 17. Though the Blue Jays managed to still win that game, it then went on to drop two straight before rattling off four wins in six tries to get back to the top of the Big East standings. Unfortunately, Greg McDermott’s kids closed the regular season out with three losses in four tries to fall down to the No. 6 seed. That didn’t matter on Thursday night when it exploded in the second half against Providence to pull out a 70-58 win and cover in a game it trailed and looked listless in at the half. The win and cover finds them 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread on neutral courts for the year.
Key Stat
25 – This is the total amount of turnovers the Musketeers committed in their pair of run-ins with the Blue Jays in the regular season. However, 17 of them were coughed up in the 72-67 home loss, and only eight in the 82-80 outright win as 5 point dogs in Omaha. If Xavier is able to take care of the basketball, it will no doubt have a shot. That could be an issue though with the Blue Jays just forcing a Providence team that had taken good care of the ball into 22 miscues after averaging just 12.3 all season. Ball security and valuing possession should be Xavier’s No. 1 priority heading into this one.
Player to Watch
Justin Patton – The 7 footer doesn’t amaze you with stats that jump off the page, but he does just about enough of everything to be a critical component of the Blue Jays overall attack with every passing game. He single-handedly got Creighton’s motor revving in the second half by forcing a couple steals and blocking a few shots to get the offense headed in the other direction for quick scores. He combined for 19 points, 11 rebounds, 2 steals and 8 blocks in these team’s pair of regular season meetings, and will once again be looked upon as an enforcer in hopes of putting the clamps on Trevon Bluiett and company.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
It’s been a nice run for the Musketeers, but I’m not buying into it. They struggled with DePaul in the opener for the first 20 minutes before opening it up late in the second half, and only managed to get by Butler due to the Bulldogs going ice cold form the field in the second half. Xavier still turned the rock over 16 times in that tilt, and if it does that again tonight which is very possible, Creighton won’t be nearly as forgiving.
Xavier’s late-season surge has been fueled by a defense that’s given up an average of just 62 points per game. However, two of those games came against DePaul and the other against a Butler offense that hardly stacks up with the best units in the country. Creighton possesses just that with it ranked No. 16 in points scored, No 3 in field goal percentage and No. 32 in efficiency. I’ll be betting against it shutting down Marcus Foster and company in this one. The Musketeers will be NIT bound once it’s all said and done.
College Basketball Odds: Creighton 78, Xavier 70
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