Baylor was among the best teams in the best conference this season and hopes the high level of competition puts it in a position to succeed. The fifth-seeded Bears are coming off a 70-66 loss to No. 1 Kansas in the Big 12 tournament semis and have lost three of their last four games – all against ranked foes.
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Yale Bulldogs +5
Baylor Bears -5
Over/Under: 137
HOW THE YALE BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Yale is known for much more than its basketball program. But the hoopsters are making the game relevant on the New Haven, Conn. campus, earning the program’s first bid to the NCAA Tournament since the John F. Kennedy administration.
The Bulldogs overcome a lack of star power with fundamentally-sound basketball. They assist on 57.1 percent of their baskets and average 15.2 assists per game. Yale shoots 47.1 percent from the field overall and 37.4 percent from three-point range.
Expect Yale to control the game with a slow tempo to try and frustrate the more athletic Bears. The offense runs through guard Makai Mason, who averages 15.8 points and 3.7 assists. Forward Justin Sears will work hard to combat Baylor’s huge mismatch down low.
Yale will attempt to force Baylor to exert energy on defense and to cover the whole court through ball movement. This is one way to combat the average athleticism on the roster. The Bulldogs need to keep the score low in order to pull off the upset.
HOW THE BAYLOR BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Baylor should be extra motivated after a stunning 57-56 loss to No. 14 seed Georgia State in the first round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament. “Last year, we didn’t like how it ended,” said coach Scott Drew.
And the Bears are well aware of this spot in the tournament bracket. Over the last four NCAA Tournaments, the Nos. 5 and 12 seeds have split 16 meetings, and it took a sweep by the No. 5s last season to get even.
Taurean Prince, Rico Gathers and Johnathan Motley make up a tremendous front court and give Baylor a decided edge in the paint. Gathers was dealing with a virus that limited his production over the last part of the schedule. He’s feeling better and needs to contribute offensively and control the boards.
The Bears spread the offense around with five players scoring roughly two-thirds of their points. That kind of balance will make it difficult for Yale to keep up.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
It would be easy to discount the Bulldogs, especially against a Big 12 power. But Yale has played four games against major conference schools: SMU, Duke, Illinois and USC. The Bulldogs went 0-4 in the games, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Yale lost to Illinois in Champaign by only four points and to a very talented SMU team by just two points in Dallas. The Bulldogs kept up with No. 6 Duke for much of the game before Brandon Ingram showed why he’s an NBA prospect. Let Yale stick around too long, and it can certainly find a way to win the basketball game. There’s no denying Baylor is the more talented and athletic bunch, but that doesn’t always get wins on the court. Yale has a bunch of smart kids playing a style designed to frustrate opponents. The Bears have shown a lack of discipline in several games and the Bulldogs are counting on that exact response to their slow-down game. If they get it, not only will Yale cover, it could surprise with a win.
Baylor 72, Yale 64
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