In a first-round David vs. Goliath matchup, Duke was able to squeeze by UNC Wilmington, but failed to cover the 10-point line in a 93-85 victory. That Yale managed to upset fifth-seeded Baylor on Thursday in the midst of a scandal is a testament to the Bulldogs’ focus and resilience. It’s DvG II when the teams meet Saturday with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
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Yale Bulldogs +6
Duke Blue Devils -6
Over/Under: 146
HOW THE YALE BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Ivy League has produced its share of surprise winners in the NCAA Tournament over the years. Add Yale to that list of bracket spoilers.
The Bulldogs played their game to perfection, upsetting the fifth-seed Baylor Bears in Thursday’s first round. The win was the culmination of a gradual climb under head coach James Jones, led this season by a trio of standout players he recruited.
Two-time Ivy League Player of the Year Justin Sears, leading scorer Makai Mason and fifth-year senior Brandon Sherrod all were major contributors in Yale’s victory. Those three combined for 59 of the team’s 79 points.
Again, the Bulldogs’ best players will have to play their best. Yale counters its comparative lack of athleticism with smart, fundamentally-sound basketball. They controlled the game from the opening tip, and nullified Baylor’s advantage inside with methodical movement on offense. Yale will not stray from a game plan that worked on Thursday.
HOW THE DUKE BLUE DEVILS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Duke got a scare from UNC Wilmington in the first round, escaping with a 93-85 win that wasn’t decided until the final moments. That eye-opening performance should get the Blue Devils ready to go from the outset against the Bulldogs.
With guys like Grayson Allen, Brandon Ingram, Marshall Plumlee and Matt Jones, the Dookies have the better, more talented basketball players. But, we saw how that worked out for Baylor. So the Blue Devils can’t be looking ahead.
Clamping down defensively on Makai Mason will do wonders for Duke’s chances of advancing to the Sweet 16. Mason was fearless and on fire against the bigger Bears on Thursday, going for a career-high 31 points.
While Duke has a size advantage in the frontcourt with Plumlee, Ingram and Chase Jeter, if he plays, the Blue Devils will have to control the glass. Baylor had a big size edge in the paint and was outrebounded by Yale.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Yale’s upset of Baylor wasn’t totally unexpected. The Bulldogs play a disciplined brand of basketball and once they got a lead, they frustrated the Bears with their crisp ball movement and tenacious defense. The plan worked well as Baylor’s Taurean Prince and Rico Gathers were involved in a dispute at the bench during a timeout – a clear sign of frustration. Duke is a more disciplined team than Baylor and may not be as easily irked by Yale’s system. At least the Blue Devils better not be.
Duke may be helped by the slow-down style Yale plays. The Devils used their typical seven-man rotation and reserves Jeter and Derryck Thornton saw more minutes than normal because of foul trouble to Plumlee and Matt Jones. Duke has to tame Mason and keep him off the free throw line. Yale’s leading scorer dropped 31 and hit all 11 of his freebies against Baylor. Also, don’t get rattled by Yale’s systematic approach to basketball. Like we saw on Thursday, if you let the Bulldogs hang around, they could steal a win. And they’re very good late, going 23-0 this season when leading heading into the final five minutes.
Duke 77, Yale 70
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the Yale Bulldogs and Duke Blue Devils will go down Saturday, March 19, 2016 at 2:40 p.m. ET at Dunkin’ Donuts Center. The matchup will be televised live on CBS.
