The Final Four on Saturday in San Antonio features three marquee teams and one gate crasher. The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers are a No. 11 seed and the Cinderella story of this year’s NCAA Tournament. To get to the title game they will have to upset the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines in the Final Four and to win the title they will have to beat a No. 1 seed in either the Kansas Jayhawks or the Villanova Wildcats. Let’s look at this year’s Final Four odds and Final Four trends.
Bet the Final Four
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines
Date and Time: Saturday, March 31, 2018, 6:07 p.m. Eastern
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Final Four Odds at BookMaker.eu: Michigan -5, O/U 129
Loyola-Chicago vs. Michigan TV Coverage: TBS
The Ramblers are 32-5 overall and 23-9-1 ATS. They are the best pointspread team in the country and they have the longest winning streak in the nation at 14 straight. The Wolverines are 32-7 overall and 24-12-2 ATS. The early odds on this game had Michigan a 6.5-point favorite and the early money poured in on Loyola taking the number down to 5.
There have been three previous No. 11 seed to make the Final Four and all three failed to reach the title game. LSU, George Mason and VCU were simply not good enough to make the title game and Loyola-Chicago may be no different. The closest No. 11 seed to make the Final Four was VCU and they weren’t even that close, losing by eight points in 2011.
Both Loyola and Michigan have benefited from last second shots, as Loyola shocked Miami, while Michigan needed a buzzer-beater to defeat Houston. Loyola also needed shots in the last seconds to beat Nevada and Tennessee.
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 1 Villanova Wildcats
Date and Time: Saturday, March 31, 2018, 8:49 p.m. Eastern
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Final Four Odds at BookMaker.eu: Villanova -5, O/U 155
Kansas vs. Villanova TV Coverage: TBS
The Jayhawks are 31-7 SU and 20-16-1 ATS. The Wildcats are 34-4 SU and 26-12 ATS. The Wildcats have four double-digit wins in the NCAA Tournament and Villanova is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
The Wildcats are the highest scoring team in the country at 87 points per game, but Kansas is not far behind at about 80 points per contest. This should be a very high scoring game and the total reflects that fact, as the total is listed at 155.
Final Four Odds and Trends
The Villanova Wildcats are the overall favorite to win the championship game at even money, while Michigan is the second choice at +250. Kansas is the third choice at +350, while Loyola-Chicago is the longshot at +900.
Favorites in the Final Four since 2005 are hitting at just over 55%. You would think that teams that are red-hot ATS would stay red-hot in the Final Four but that is not the case, as those teams are winning at just 40% against the spread since 2005. Taking the big points has not been the way to go recently in the Final Four, as the dogs are just 2-11 SU and 6-7 against the spread in the last 13 games.
Going against the public in the Final Four is usually the way to go. The public is on Loyola and Villanova in this year’s Final Four, so taking Michigan and Kansas is the way to go based on going against the public. Looking at trends on the total, the numbers are almost split, with 52% of games going under since 2005.
You might not think that first-time coaches would do well in the Final Four, but that is not the case. Coaches in the Final Four for the first time are just about 50-50 straight up and over 60% against the spread.
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