How do you go about picking winners in March Madness? Do you just pick the higher seeded teams or do you look at some statistics? The 2018 NCAA Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 13 with the First Four, and then the main action begins on Thursday, March 15 with 16 games. There are a number of things to consider when picking March Madness winners, but I want to look at just one, scoring margin.
Don't miss the hardwood action in the NCAA Tournament beginning with the First Four on Tuesday, March 13, 2018. Catch every game of March Madness on CBS, TNT, TruTV and TBS.
We'll have NCAA Basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game in March Madness.
Scoring Margin
When you consider NCAA basketball statistics you may not even be aware of scoring margin. It is not one of those statistics that gets a lot of press, as many sites don’t even put it up. It is simply the number that tells you how many points a team has won their games by. And yes, oftentimes the top teams in the country will have the top scoring margins, but not always. Let’s look at the Top 20 teams in terms of scoring margin as we approach March Madness.
Scoring Margin (Through Games of Feb. 20)
Cincinnati 18.7
Michigan State 17.9
Gonzaga 17.6
Purdue 16.9
Villanova 16.6
Duke 16.1
Virginia 15.0
Louisiana-Lafayette 14.2
South Dakota 14.1
Murray State 13.8
Wichita State 13.5
Texas Tech 13.4
Saint Mary’s (CA) 13.1
Northern Kentucky 13.0
Stephen F. Austin 12.7
Old Dominion 12.6
Houston 12.1
Auburn 12.1
West Virginia 12.1
Kansas 11.6
When you look at this list of teams there are a number of surprises, as you’ll notice teams like South Dakota and Murray State on the list. You might want to consider those teams if they make the NCAA Tournament. You probably won’t want to pick them to win it all, but you might want to take them in their first round games. The teams that you want to take are those that are ranked in the Top 20 in scoring margin and also ranked in the Top 20 in the AP Poll. Take Cincinnati for example. They are the top team in scoring margin and also ranked No. 11. The Bearcats are not going to be a hugely popular choice to win the NCAA Tournament, as they don’t have the marquee value of a team like Villanova or Duke. What that means is that if Cincinnati does win it all, you could win your March Madness bracket contest.
What about teams you might not want to pick as your champion in March Madness? Did you notice a few teams that are not in the Top 20 in scoring margin, yet are highly ranked in the AP Poll? Xavier is the first team that stands out. They are ranked No. 4 in the country, but nowhere to be found in terms of scoring margin. You might want to avoid picking this team in your bracket contest. Some people will take Kansas to win it all, but the Jayhawks scoring margin is just No. 20 in the country.
When you are picking winners in March Madness, you want teams that win by good margins. If there are teams you like that have a scoring margin of less than 10 points per game you might want to reconsider picking them. Xavier has a scoring margin of just 9.8 points per game. Ohio State is another ranked team that has a weak scoring margin, as they win by just 9.7 points per game.
March Madness ATS Picks
There is no question that Cincinnati is worth considering as a team to win the 2018 NCAA Tournament based on their scoring margin. You can get Cincinnati right now at odds of +2900 to win the tourney and they are a definite value pick.
BookMaker.eu offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker.eu!
