If you are going to have any chance of winning a March Madness Bracket contest then you have to get off to a good start. The first round has 32 games for you to pick and while some games are easy, the 1 vs. 16 for example, many other games are not. What are some things to keep in mind as you pick the first round games in the 2018 NCAA Tournament? Let’s take a look.
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First Round Tips
We know that a No. 1 seed has never lost to a No. 16 seed in the tournament, so we are taking all of the top seeds in the first round. The No. 2 seeds almost never lose to the No. 15 seeds, but it is not entirely out of the question. Still, we are not going to pick a No. 15 seed to win in the first round. Once we get past the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds things get a little more interesting.
We have to first start considering outright upsets when we get to the No. 3 seeds vs. the No. 14 seeds. In fact, history has shown that there are actually almost as many No. 14 seeds that win against No. 3 seeds as No. 13 seeds winning against No. 4 seeds. We almost have to pick at least one and possibly two No. 13 or No. 14 seeds.
We all know that taking a No. 12 seed is something we have to do against a No. 5 seed. The question is how many No. 12 seeds we are going to pick. The answer is one or two. The No. 12 seed wins about 32% of the time in this matchup. And don’t forget about taking a No. 11 seed, as they win about the same amount of time against the No. 6 seed. I would say that you need to pick at least three teams seeded No. 11 and No. 12.
I would tend to avoid going too crazy in the No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup. You would think the No. 10 seeds would do well, but that has not been the case. No. 7 seeds win over 60% of the time. I might be tempted to take three No. 7 seeds to advance. The 8-9 matchup is a totally coin flip.
I mentioned all of the first round tips, but you have to fill out your entire March Madness Bracket at the same time, so I briefly want to consider some other tips. Forget about picking a big underdog to win the title game. One of the top four seeds is likely to win the title. All four top seeds will win in the first round and most of the time they make it to the Sweet Sixteen. 70% of the time they all make the Elite Eight and then they lose about half the time. Never have all four No. 1 seeds played in the Final Four. When you are picking your Final Four teams keep in mind that over 80% of the time the Final Four is made up from teams in the top four seeds.
March Madness ATS Picks
The first round of the NCAA Tournament is the most exciting two days of the college basketball season with 32 games taking place. Picking all No. 1 seeds is a given and taking the No. 2 seeds is also pretty much a given. Where you win your bracket is in the other matchups. Based on the trends, I think taking at least three of the No. 7 seeds to win their opening round game and perhaps at least two to win their second round games is the way to go.
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