The pressure will be on full blast for mid-major college basketball programs that have no margin for error in their quest for an invite to the Big Dance. With the NCAA Tournament looming on the minds of everyone the conference tournaments begin in earnest this week. Among them is the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Teams from leagues like the Missouri Valley face far greater pressure in their conference tournaments than the so called “power five” conferences. For mid-major teams a great performance in the regular season is basically meaningless. All that matters is the conference tournament. A great four month campaign can be washed away in just four days or less. Thus, it’s a pressure packed weekend on a high wire.
The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament will be held March 1 through March 4 at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri.
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Missouri Valley Conference Tournament action begins on Thursday with game one between Evansville and Northern Iowa. Game two will pit Missouri State against Valparaiso. On Friday the game one winner will face Loyola of Chicago in game three. Game four will have Duke against Bradley. In Friday’s game five Southern Illinois will face the winner of Thursday’s game two. Action for Friday will wrap up with game six between Illinois State and Indiana State. On Saturday the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals will feature two matchups. Game seven is the winner of game three against the winner of game four while game eight matches the winner of game five vs. the winner of game six. The championship game is on Sunday.
The Loyola of Chicago Ramblers were the regular season champions of “The Valley.” Defense was the key to head coach Porter Moser’s Ramblers. Loyola ranked seventh in the entire nation for points allowed. The Ramblers won the league title by a decisive four game margin.
Another defensively oriented team are the Southern Illinois Salukis. SIU finished second in The Valley regular season standings. The lack of offense proved problematic for the Salukis and prevented a serious title run.
The Drake Bulldogs are a team to consider if for no other reason than they actually have some threat of an offense. That being said, like most teams in the Missouri Valley Conference, the Bulldogs have no real identifiable team strength.
The Bradley Braves are yet another team that wins with strong defense. Bradley finished 24th in the country for scoring defense but an inept offense that ranked 304th nationally was an offset.
The Northern Iowa Panthers are a well known program from The Valley that has a history of March Madness success. But this year UNI was so horrible on offense that they barely avoided the basement in the standings.
Key Stats
Loyola of Chicago lost just eight out of 26 lined games against the spread. The Ramblers closed strong and maintained their betting value with seven payouts in their last ten games. Southern Illinois is limping into this tournament with just two payouts in their last seven games. Also limping into the Missouri Valley Tournament is Bradley, who got the money in just two of their last seven games. Drake was a consistent commodity with just 11 losses against the spread in 28 games. The Bulldogs paid out in three of their last five games. Northern Iowa was a “go against” team that paid out in just nine of 26 lined games.
Player to Watch
Drake boasts one of the few bona fide individual stars in the conference with senior guard Reed Timmer. With a team best 19.5 points per game Timmer stood out as a difference maker. He had the hot hand at season’s end by scoring 20 or more points in six out of Drake’s last eight games.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Drake is a team that proved it could sustain betting value. And with a player like Timmer they are a threat to beat anyone they face. Head coach Niko Medved orchestrated quick progress for the Bulldogs program. They make for an excellent underdog selection.
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Pick: Drake Bulldogs
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