The Kansas Jayhawks were looked upon as one of the most perilous No. 1 seeds heading into the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, but are only one of two left standing. The Virginia Cavaliers suffered a historic upset in the first round to No. 16 seed UMBC while No. 1 seed the Xavier Musketeers fell in the second round.
Kansas isn’t the best No. 1 seed remaining as that title goes to Villanova, but is now on the short list of national championship contenders by virtue of advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. The Jayhawks will be favored to make it to the Elite Eight but are not the team to beat in the Midwest Region.
That honor goes to the No. 2 seed Duke Blue Devils, who probably should have been the top seed if the oddsmakers are correct, which is usually the case. Duke gets a good matchup in the Sweet Sixteen against the No. 11 seed Syracuse Orange. Syracuse has gone on a nice run to get to this point, needing a last-second win over Arizona State in the First Four in order to simply make the Field of 64. Syracuse’s run is expected to end here and it has long odds to win the Midwest Region.
Clemson is the other team remaining in the region and is coming off a dominant effort against No. 4 seed Auburn. The Tigers hope to keep the momentum up but have a tough matchup against Kansas and then would likely have to beat Duke in order to win the region, and that is a tall task.
NCAA Tournament Odds
Duke -136
Kansas +203
Clemson +645
Syracuse +2077
Odds Analysis
Duke isn’t even the top seed in the Midwest but is the biggest favorite to make the Final Four among any team remaining in March Madness. The Blue Devils are 11.5-point favorites to knock off Syracuse in the Sweet Sixteen. Duke is listed as the -850 favorite on the moneyline to win this game so it would be another colossal upset if Syracuse can keep making its way forward in the bracket. The Orange beat Michigan State in the Round of 32 facing similar long odds.
Kansas is a 4.5-point favorite over Clemson, so while the Midwest Region Final is projected to be a matchup between the Jayhawks and Blue Devils, it’s not a guarantee. The Tigers are +180 underdogs to win this game, which is low enough for it to be a realistic chance at an upset. Clemson would be a heavy underdog against Duke but would love to get to the Elite Eight and have a chance at the Final Four.
If Michigan State was still in the tournament the road would be much tougher for Duke, but the Blue Devils caught a break by playing Syracuse in this one. It adds up to an easy rationalization for the Blue Devils to be the odds-on favorites to capture the Midwest Region in college basketball betting lines.
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Kansas may be intriguing to some since it would pay off at more than 2-to-1 to win a region in which is it the top seed. However, Duke should be the top seed and now it has an easier road. The Blue Devils should be able to beat Syracuse rather easily and move on to the Elite Eight.
An expected matchup against Kansas should happen and it could be close, but in the end Duke is the better team and will prove it in this one. The Blue Devils are one of the favorites to win the national title and will keep their hopes alive by advancing to the Final Four with a win over Kansas in the Elite Eight to capture the Midwest Region.
The Orange’s odds are so long that it may be tempting to take flier, but there is little reason to believe Syracuse has a viable path to winning the region. Even a win over Duke would only get it halfway there, and a matchup with any of the other teams in this region would pit Syracuse as the underdog.
NCAA Odds: Duke to win the Midwest Region
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