The Arizona Wildcats have played extremely well of late and could be a national championship contender despite only entering March Madness as a No. 4 seed. They hope to make quick work of No. 13 seed the Buffalo Bulls in the first round because the schedule will get significantly tougher from here.
Arizona wasn’t great in non-conference play but won the regular season Pac-12 title and then followed it up with the conference tournament championship to enter on a high. Buffalo was the best team in the MAC this season but Arizona has a lot more talent that anyone in the Bulls’ conference, so this one will be an uphill battle.
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Odds Analysis
Buffalo has been listed as a nine-point underdog in this matchup. More than 56.5 percent of the action is on Arizona to cover the spread thus far. The scoring total is 157 as the oddsmakers project a fast-paced game as each side is fine with pushing the ball.
Arizona has gone 27-7 straight up and 14-19-1 against the spread. The Wildcats have covered in four of seven attempts on neutral courts this season. Arizona is 12-18-1 against the spread as the favorite.
Buffalo is 26-8 straight up and 16-12-3 against the spread. The Bulls have done nicely in neutral settings, covering in five of their six attempts. Buffalo has only been the underdog four times on the year, covering in three of them.
Key Stat
84.4. That’s the number of points per game Buffalo averages on the season, which is seventh in the country. Even though the Bulls have inferior talent, they are used to playing an uptempo style and will likely try to push the pace.
Buffalo is fifteenth in the country in assists per game with nearly 17 per contest and ball movement will be critical in keeping the Bulls in this one. CJ Massinburg and Nick Perkins are the team’s leading scorers, each averaging more than 16 points per game, but Jeremy Harris and Wes Clark are also big contributors.
The Bulls balanced offense is another plus. Arizona is also a team that score a lot of points, however, with the Wildcats averaging 80.4 points per game this year.
Player To Watch
Deandre Ayton— Arizona’s freshman phenom is playing some of his best basketball of the season right now and that’s very bad news for anyone in the Wildcats’ path. Because even when Ayton is not at his best, he’s still way above average.
Ayton comes into this tournament off a stellar performance in the Pac-12 Tournament where he helped Arizona to a conference title and was crowned the MVP of the tournament as well as the Pac-12’s Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year. He finished the conference tournament with back-to-back double-doubles, combining for 64 points and 32 rebounds in those final two games.
He is averaging 20.3 points, 11.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game for Arizona this year, but appears to be peaking at just the right time. Ayton will enter the NBA Draft after this season and, after all the scrutiny the program received this season, would like nothing more than to lead the Wildcats on a very deep run on his way out.
Free NCAA ATS Picks
Arizona has a good collection of talent, led by Ayton and Allonzo Trier. However, the team can be inconsistent, and this spread seems a little but bit too large. Buffalo is a solid small-conference team and it will make things uncomfortable on the Wildcats.
Take Arizona to win this game, but Buffalo to cover the spread in March Madness basketball odds. The Bulls are a great choice in NCAA basketball first half odds because they should be able to hang around in this one through the first 20 minutes.
NCAA Odds: Arizona 80, Buffalo 74
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