The Penn State Nittany Lions had a tough time of it in the competitive Big Ten this season, but have played very well outside of conference in the NIT. Penn State has picked up three straight wins to advance to the NIT semifinals, where it will face off against fellow No. 4 seed the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Mississippi State dominated Louisville last time out and hopes to keep that momentum up heading into this one with a berth in the NIT Championship game on the line. Penn State has been pegged as the slight favorite but the spread is low enough that each side has a legitimate shot at coming away with the victory in NCAA basketball odds.
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Odds Analysis
Penn State has been tabbed the 2.5-point favorite, and early on it has received about two-thirds of the action to cover the NIT basketball spread. Penn State is -145 on the moneyline while the Bulldogs are listed at +125 underdogs to pull the upset. The scoring total has been listed at 135 points, with the “over” the slightly more common choice.
Mississippi State is 25-11 straight up and 17-14 against the spread this season. The Bulldogs have covered in two of their three games on neutral courts this season. Mississippi State has covered in eight of 15 attempts as the underdog. The Bulldogs have covered the spread in five straight games heading into this matchup.
Penn State is 24-13 straight up and 19-13-1 against the spread. The Nittany Lions have covered in four of five games on neutral courts this year. Penn State is 12-8-1 against the spread as the favorite.
Last Time Out
Penn State advanced to the NIT semifinals with an 85-80 victory over Marquette in the quarterfinals. Lamar Stevens had a big-time game, scoring 30 points on 14-of-22 shooting to lead the way for the Nittany Lions. Penn State shot a blistering 53.4 percent from the field, taking a big lead and then holding off a late Marquette rally for the win.
The Nittany Lions opened up the NIT was a six-point win over Temple and then knocked off No. 1 seed Notre Dame by double digits in the second round.
Mississippi State rolled past Louisville by a score of 79-56 in the quarterfinals. The Bulldogs’ defense was elite. It held the Cardinals to 35.0 percent shooting from the field and forced 16 turnovers. Mississippi State also held a rebounding advantage of 10 boards, dominating in every phase.
The Bulldogs were led by Quinndary Weatherspoon, who had 19 points in the contest and hit 6-of-10 from the field and all six of his free throws.
Injury Report
Penn State has done OK without him during the NIT, but won’t have talenetd big man Mike Watkins due to a knee injury. He averaged 12.1 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game this season but has not played in several weeks and will be done for the year,
Mississippi State would do well to attack the rim without Penn State’s main shot blocker available. The Nittany Lions have done a good job overcoming his absence thus far but need to do it two more times to come away with the NIT championship.
Free NCAA ATS Picks
These teams are virtually identical statistically and both enter the contest on a roll. This one looks like a toss-up, so it is smart to take the points. Choose Mississippi State to cover the spread, and the odds are enticing enough to take the Bulldogs on the moneyline.
This one could come down to the very last minute. The choice is for the Bulldogs to hit a big shot late to pull off the upset of Penn State and advance to the NIT finals in NCAA basketball betting.
NCAA Odds: Mississippi State 70, Penn State 67
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