The Houston Cougars played in a barn-burner in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, escaping with a two-point win over San Diego State. The No. 6 seed Cougars will move on to the Round of 32 to face the Michigan Wolverines in a game they won’t be expected to win.
Michigan is one of the hottest teams in the country and will aim to punch its ticket to the Sweet Sixteen with a win over Houston. The Wolverines should be a decent favorite to take care of business in this matchup. If Houston plays well it may be able to keep this one close in March Madness odds.
Don't miss the hardwood action from Intrust Bank Arena at 9:40 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 17, 2018. Catch every moment of the game live on TBS.
We'll have NCAA odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the NCAA Saturday schedule.
Odds Analysis
Houston is 27-7 straight up and 18-11-1 against the spread. The Cougars are 5-2 against the spread in neutral court games. They have covered in five of seven attempts as well when they have been the underdog.
The Wolverines are 28-7 straight up and 22-11-1 against the spread. Michigan has gone 15-9-1 against the spread as the favorite. It is also 5-2 against the spread on neutral courts.
Last Time Out
Houston was in a tie game with San Diego State as time ticked down and Rob Gray helped secure the win by connecting on a lay-up with just 1.1 seconds remaining. The Cougars escaped with the 67-65 margin of victory. Houston only shot 37 percent from the field but its stingy defense was able to keep San Diego State in check.
Gray had an incredible 39 points in the contest, hitting 12-of-25 shots from the field while adding 11 free throws. If it wasn’t for his performance, Houston would be sitting at home in the Round of 32.
Michigan had a workmanlike performance in the first round, outpacing Montana by a score of 61-47. The Wolverines only allowed Montana to shoot 32 percent from the field and was never really threatened in the second half. Charles Matthews led the way by scoring 20 points in the contest, but it was the team defense that did most of the heavy lifting.
Key Stat
10. That’s the number of victories in a row the Wolverines have reeled off heading into this game. They were in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten before zooming toward the upper tier of the standings. Then they surprised everybody by knocking off both Michigan State and Purdue on their way to the Big Ten tournament championship.
There is something to be said for peaking at the right time and the Wolverines certainly seem to be doing so this year. Michigan has proven the ability to play with anyone in the country but also has a couple suspect losses, so getting a win in this one is no sure thing if the Wolverines don’t play up to their standard.
Free NCAA ATS Picks
There are bound to be a few upsets over the weekend, and this one is a possibility. While Michigan has more pedigree, Houston is sneakily a solid team. The Cougars should be a good value to take both to cover the NCAA basketball betting line spread as well as to win the game outright on the moneyline.
Go with Houston to pull the upset, and consider taking the “under” as this figures to be a grind-it-out affair.
NCAA Odds: Houston 64, Michigan 60
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