The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns have been the best team in the Sun Belt Conference all season, and now need to be so for one more week. Louisiana is primed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament provided it can come away with the title in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament.
The Ragin Cajuns have a record of 26-5 overall and won 16 of 18 Sun Belt games in the regular season to regularly outpace the rest of the teams. However, its RPI isn’t super strong because of the level of competition, and it seems unlikely Louisiana would make the tournament as an at-large team if it doesn’t claim the conference tournament title.
That’s definitely the case for the rest of the teams in the Sun Belt. Teams like Georgia State, Georgia Southern and UT Arlington would love to somehow find a way to win the conference tournament championship to sneak into March Madness, even though the Ragin Cajuns are the most worthy team.
Sun Belt Tournament Schedule
Don't miss the hardwood action from the Lakefront Arena from Wednesday, March 7, 2018 through Sunday, March 11 on ESPN2 and ESPN3. We'll have NCAA odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game of the Sun Belt Tournament.
First Round - Wednesday, March 7th
No. 8 Coastal Carolina vs. No. 9 Texas State, 11:30 a.m.
No. 5 Appalachian State vs. No. 12 Little Rock, 2 p.m.
No. 7 Troy vs. No. 10 South Alabama, 5 p.m.
No. 6 Louisiana-Monroe vs. No. 11 Arkansas State, 7:30 p.m.
Quarterfinals - Friday, March 9
No. 1 Louisiana-Lafayette vs. TBD, 11:30 a.m.
No. 4 Texas-Arlington vs. TBD, 2 p.m.
No. 2 Georgia State vs. Game 3 winner, 5 p.m.
No. 3 Georgia Southern vs. Game 4 winner, 7:30 p.m.
Semifinals - Saturday, March 10
TBD, 11:30 a.m.
TBD, 2 p.m.
Championship - Sunday, March 11
TBD, 1 p.m.
Odds Analysis
Louisiana will be the clear favorite in this one. The Ragin Cajuns’ only losses in Sun Belt play came on the road to Georgia State and then in a big upset to Arkansas Little-Rock, the worst team in the conference. The last loss came in the regular season finale, so Louisiana will need to bounce back and get back on track in the Sun Belt Tournament.
Georgia State went 21-10 overall and 12-6 in conference during the season and will be the main contender to Louisiana’s crown.
Bubble Watch
The Ragin Cajuns have an RPI of 61, which is right near the bubble for March Madness. Unfortunately, a loss in the conference tournament would drop its RPI and make it tougher to qualify for an at-large berth. Louisiana didn’t play very many major-conference foes, so while it has a great overall record, there are legitimate questions about whether it deserves to be in the tournament without the conference tournament crown.
Louisiana will aim to avoid this debate by simply winning the Sun Belt Tournament, but if it is knocked out early it will be interesting to see if the team is considered for an at-large berth. No other team in the Sun Belt has a chance to make March Madness as an at-large team.
Free NCAA ATS Picks
Louisiana suffered a bad loss to end the season, but is lucky that it didn’t come in this tournament. The Ragin Cajuns should be able to re-focus and capture the Sun Belt tournament, which will punch their ticket to March Madness.
Look for Georgia State to be their chief foe in the championship game. It should be a competitive matchup with so much on the line, but Louisiana is the better team and will come away with the victory.
NCAA Odds: Louisiana 74, Georgia State 70 in the finals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament
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