The Texas Longhorns are under .500 in Big 12 play but have accumulated enough big wins to be in line for an NCAA Tournament berth. But they have to continue to take care of business in winnable games, and that will be the case in an upcoming home matchup against the Baylor Bears.
While Baylor is a decent team, it’s not as strong as in past years. Add in the road location and the Bears will be the underdogs in this one. Texas lost the first matchup between these teams this year so it won’t be over-confident, but it’s setting up as a game the Longhorns should be able to come away victorious in.
The spread does not figure to be very large as Baylor is good enough to pull the upset or at least cover if it shoots well from the field.
At 9 p.m. ET, tune into ESPN for live television coverage of this NCAA basketball game on Monday, February 12, 2018, at the Frank Erwin Center.
We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Monday schedule.
Odds Analysis
Baylor is 14-10 straight up and 12-7 against the spread. The Bears have covered in half of their eight road games this season. Baylor is 5-5 against the spread as the underdog. The Bears have covered in three consecutive games.
Texas is 15-9 straight up and 12-9 against the spread. The Longhorns have covered in seven of their 11 games on the road this season. Texas is 7-4 against the spread as the favorite.
Key Stat
Five. Baylor has seven losses in conference play, which has it near the bottom of the conference standings, but all but two of them have come by single digits.
Baylor began this hard-luck streak with an 81-78 loss to No. 16 TCU. It followed that up with a three-point loss at No. 2 West Virginia, a three-point loss at No. 10 Kansas, a seven-point loss to Kansas State and a two-point loss at No. 12 Oklahoma.
While these close decisions have all gone against Baylor, the Bears have shown the ability to go toe-to-toe against some of the best teams in the country. Baylor has won two straight games of late but has another game against nationally ranked Kansas before this matchup with Texas.
Previous Meeting
Baylor won the first matchup between these teams by a score of 69-60. The Bears trailed by a bucket at the half but clamped down on defense after intermission to secure the win.
Jo Lual-Acuil and Manu Lecomte led the way with 17 points apiece in the victory. Texas shot really poorly from the field in the first matchup, connecting on only 34.3 percent of attempts. Baylor, meanwhile, hit 49 percent, which was an easy reason to see why it came away with the win.
Texas only trailed by three points with five minutes remaining in the game but didn’t score the rest of the way.
Free NCAA Men’s Basketball ATS Picks
Baylor’s record is deceiving and this won’t be an easy game for Texas. The Longhorns are lucky they have the home court advantage in this one because it will be needed. Take the Bears’ bad luck in close games to continue, as Texas is the pick to come away with the victory.
However, if the spread is even just a few points in favor of the Longhorns, Baylor should be the easy choice to cover the spread. The scoring total will likely be lower than most games as each side doesn’t mind slowing the game down while playing good defense.
This is a big game for Texas and it will be lucky to come away with a key victory, but it will be a nail-biter.
NCAA Men’s Basketball Odds: Texas 73, Baylor 72
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