The Virginia Cavaliers picked up a huge road win last time out against Duke and can put a stranglehold on first place in the ACC with a win over the Louisville Cardinals next time out. Virginia is ranked No. 2 in the country and looking every bit a national title contender after knocking off the vaunted Blue Devils last time out.
Virginia is the lone undefeated team left in conference play and will be three whole games ahead of everyone else in the ACC if it can beat Louisville. The Cardinals, though, would be able to climb to just a game back in the loss column with a win.
The Cardinals are the inferior team and will be on the road in this matchup, so it will be really tough to pull off the upset.
At 7 p.m. ET, tune into ESPN2 for live television coverage of this NCAA basketball game on Wednesday, January 31, 2018, at John Paul Jones Arena.
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Odds Analysis
Louisville is 16-5 straight up and 11-8 against the spread. The Cardinals have covered in four of six attempts away from home this season. Louisville is 4-2 against the spread as the underdog.
Virginia is 20-1 straight up and has covered in 14 of its 18 games that have had a spread. The Cavaliers are 7-3 against the spread at home this year. Virginia is an impressive 13-3 against the spread as the favorite.
Key Stat
52.1. That’s the number of points per game Virginia is allowing this season as it boasts the best defense in the country. The Cavaliers prefer slowing the game down and going through their offense methodically and then clamping down on the other side of the floor.
Duke is one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation but was only able to muster 63 points last time out in Virginia’s win. The Cavaliers dominated in the game before that as well, giving up just a measly 36 points to No. 18 Clemson in a blowout win.
Virginia has held 10 opponents to under 50 points in a game this season and Louisville will really have to play well in order to put up points consistently on the offensive end of the court.
Player To Watch
Deng Adel — Louisville’s chances may hinge on that of their leading scorer, Adel. The junior forward is putting up 15.6 points and 4.9 rebounds per game this season and will definitely be a focal point on offense as the Cardinals try to figure out Virginia’s stingy defense.
Adel is shooting a career-best 47.2 percent from the field and is hitting 34.9 percent from three-point range. If he can get hot from the outside it will be a huge boost to his team’s upset chances.
Adel has registered a double-double in two of his past five games, including a 27-point, 11-rebound performance in a recent win over Virginia Tech.
Free NCAA Men’s Basketball ATS Picks
Louisville has won four of its past five games and has looked solid in conference play, but this is a different animal. As good as traditional powers like North Carolina and Duke are, Virginia is proving to be the most dominant group in the ACC in 2018.
The Cavaliers should be able to flex their muscles once again in this matchup. Take Virginia to slow this game and methodically pull away from Louisville in the final few minutes. The Cardinals, though, may be the right choice to cover depending on where the spread comes in for this one.
The scoring total will likely be low as it always is when Virginia is involved in the contest.
NCAA Men’s Basketball Odds: Virginia 66, Louisville 57
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