NCAA Men’s Basketball ATS Picks - No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 8 Virginia Cavaliers Game Preview

It’s not often the North Carolina Tar Heels are underdogs, but that should be the case when they travel to face the Virginia Cavaliers in a pivotal ACC clash. North Carolina is once again a strong team which should be considered a contender for March Madness, but the Cavaliers have been even more impressive this season and have the benefit of the home court advantage.

This is a game of dueling strengths as North Carolina likes to get up and down the court while Virginia has a suffocating defense. The Cavaliers can make a big statement in the conference with a victory but it won’t be easy against such a perennially strong opponent.

Don't miss the hardwood action from the John Paul Jones Arena at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 6, 2018. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.

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Odds Analysis

North Carolina is 12-3 straight up and 8-6 against the spread on the season. The Tar Heels have only been the underdog once this season and failed to cover in that contest. North Carolina has covered in two of three tries on the road.

Virginia is 13-1 straight up and 8-3 against the spread. The Cavaliers have covered in four of six attempts at home this season and are 8-2 against the spread as the favorite.

Player To Watch

Cameron Johnson -- The Pittsburgh transfer has started to play for North Carolina and the experienced guard is trying to give the team a lift. Johnson averaged 11.9 points and 4.5 rebounds a season ago with the Panthers before moving on to the Tar Heels.

He has played four games for North Carolina and has made a nice contribution, scoring 11.7 points while adding 4.3 rebounds. While Johnson isn’t the team’s best player, he gives it more depth and another scoring option if some of the other stars aren’t playing well.

Johnson figures to improve as the season goes along as he develops more chemistry with his teammates. He was a nice pickup and a guy Virginia must keep an eye on.

Key Stat

52.8. That’s how many points per game Virginia’s defense is allowing its opponents this season. The Cavaliers currently rank No. 1 in the country for points against with that mark.

That stingy defense was tested when Virginia faced off against rival Virginia Tech on Wednesday, a sharp shooting team whose offense is among the best in the country. But the Cavaliers once again stood stout, cruising to the 78-52 win and flummoxing the Hokies.

North Carolina’s offense is shooting 47.3 percent from the field right now, and the Tar Heels will likely have an edge over the Cavaliers off the boards which could allow for the second chances needed to keep Carolina in this one. Luke Maye and Joel Berry II are North Carolina’s best weapons offensively, combining for 35.6 points a game, and slowing them down will be the main focus for Virginia.

Free NCAA Men’s Basketball ATS Picks

It’s hard choosing against North Carolina because of its fantastic wealth of talent and long track record of success. However, Virginia has played like one of the best teams in the country all season and clamps down defensively like no one else in basketball.

The Tar Heels should be able to hang around but the Cavaliers are the choice to pick up this victory at home and prove themselves as legitimate contenders in the ACC. Check out the spread in this one. Virginia figures to be the favorite but it’s unknown by how many points.

NCAA Men’s Basketball Odds: Virginia Cavaliers 67, North Carolina Tar Heels 64

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