The dynamic Gonzaga Bulldogs’ offense managed just 26 points in the first half against South Dakota State, but they avoided become history’s first No.1 seed loss in the Round of 64, cruising to an easy 66-46 victory over the Jackrabbits. They’ll now get to face-off against the No.8 seeded Northwestern Wildcats who have nothing to lose, having already recorded a win in their first ever appearance in the Big Dance.
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While the Bulldogs got an easy win—as expected—in the 1/16 matchup, they weren’t able to cover the lofty spread. It was the fourth time in seven games that Gonzaga failed to cover.
On the other side, while the Wildcats went in as the favorite based on seeding, they were the underdogs according to the spread, but managed to win, giving them their fourth win ATS in their last six games. Going back a bit further, however, Northwestern is an even 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
Key Stat
Gonzaga is one of the most efficient teams in the sport when you factor in their ability to force bad shots on defense while finding good ones on offense. Based on the stats, they rank second in team efficiency on defense and 10th on the offensive end of the court. They are the Ken Pom darlings.
The Bulldogs sit atop the rest of the sport according to the Ken Pom ratings and the gap between the WCC powerhouse and UNC at third place is as big as the gap between UNC and UCLA at No. 18.
The high level of efficiency have led to a 23.3 point spread between their average PPG scored at 84 and PPG allowed at just 60.7. The team ranks No. 13 in offense and No. 4 in defense overall, ranking second in both field goal percentage and field goal percentage allowed.
For comparison, while the Zags ranks atop the Ken Pom rating, Northwestern sits at No. 37. The Bulldogs rating is +32.74 compared to the Wildcats’ at +15.49.
Key Player
The key player in this game is also the tallest player and biggest presence on the court in Przemek Karnowski. The senior big man in the middle is one of the winningest players in college basketball history and that’s even without a Final Four appearance. He and the team will be hungry for one this time around. They’ve got the best overall team since he’s been at Gonzaga. They want this badly.
We’ve seen more from him this year, too, as he’s becoming a better player with all of his experience getting his team into the win column. He’s become a less selfish player, getting better at passing the ball more with plays going through him and not just to him. He’s also getting to less foul trouble which is the real key here.
Karnowski is the team’s best defender inside the paint. He’s got the ability to change shots for the opposition at the rim and is the team’s best shot blocker.
That’s particularly important against Northwestern. This team has a deceptively good crop of players highlighted by Bryant McIntosh. He put up 25 points in the win against Vandy and was able to get to rim almost at will. The Zags cannot let that happen and won’t. The Bulldogs are the best defensive team in the sport, largely because of Karnowski.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
The Wildcats don’t have near the talent to compete with the Bulldogs over the course of a full game, but look for the Cats to make this one fun for a while. They’re a team playing with house money right now after winning their first round matchup. Their season has already been an unmitigated success. Meanwhile, Gonzaga would be a failure to drop in the Round of 32 as a No. 1 seed. That alone, can make this a dangerous game for the Zags.
In the end, the Bulldogs are too good to lose this game, even if they are a mid-major team. The game could get rocky for a while—similar to the first half against South Dakota State, but just as they did on Thursday, Gonzaga will pull away in the second half for a comfortable enough win, at least according to the final score.
This is possibly the best team Gonzaga has had and that’s saying something as they’ve been one of the consistently good teams for quite some time—tough they’ve yet to reach the Final Four. This could be the year, but for now they’ll at least get to the second weekend. They’re efficient, they are good at creating opportunities and they’re experienced with one of the most experienced lineups in college basketball. Their size may not make the Zags a sexy pick, but they’re good, too good to lose on Saturday.
College Basketball Odds: Gonzaga 75, Northwestern 64
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