The Saint Mary’s Gaels got out to a 15-point lead in the first half and while they gave a bit back after the break, they still managed to contain VCU enough to get to the Round of 32 where they’ll meet up with the No. 2 seeded Arizona Wildcats. Arizona is on fire right now. Their defense and size could be the differentiators. Add in the way their offense is playing and this team could be the one to beat in the whole West Region, let alone this game.
At TBD p.m. ET, tune into TBD for live television coverage of this NCAA Tournament basketball game on Saturday, March 18, 2017, at the Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, UT.
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In a crazy high scoring game, Arizona cruised by the total with the help of North Dakota on Thursday. That’s the fourth straight game the Wildcats have been involved with a game going over the total.
While the streak that’s seen the over payout was extended, the streak of wins ATS has come to an end at four after the push on Thursday night. Still, the team is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games.
Flipping the page to the Gaels, they easily covered in their game against VCU, winning 85-77. Given that win, the team is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games. They’ve seen a nice offensive serge of late, too, making the over a very intriguing play for those looking to bet on the total.
Key Stat
The Wildcats have the favorable seeding and the track record having beaten both Oregon and UCLA on back-to-back days as part of their conference tournament win to earn the top seed out of the Pac-12. They coupled that with a fantastic regular season were they lost only four times and only twice since December 3.
On the year, Arizona has outscored the Gaels, 76.3 PPG to 72.4. They’ve also shot better from the free throw line and out rebounded them. On defense, they fall short of St. Mary’s who rank second in college hoops with just 57.1 PPG allowed, but they’re no slouches on the defensive end of the court either.
While all of this is true, the Ken Pom ratings still favor the No. 7 seed over the No. 2. St. Mary’s has the better shooting percentage both from the floor and—barely—from beyond the arc. They don’t quite as many chances, they do better with those chances they get.
Ken Pom has the Gaels ranked No. 14 in offensive efficiency to Arizona’s No. 20 and cumulatively, St. Mary’s finds itself five spots ahead of the Wildcats at No. 14 compared No. 19.
Look-ahead Situation
Arizona is coming off a huge offensive explosion against North Dakota, scoring 100 points including 53 in the first half.
The Wildcats scored early and often and kept the points coming. This is now the fourth straight game scoring at last 83 and while the opponent wasn’t Oregon, UCLA or Colorado, the offensive output was even more impressive than what Arizona did in those three games.
In scoring so many points, the Wildcats did neglect the defense a bit as the final score ended, 100-82, allowing the Flying Hawks to score their share, too, primarily from 20-points by Drick Bernstine and 25 from Quinton Hooker.
The defensive issues aside, Arizona shot 59 percent from the floor and 40 percent from beyond the arc. They sank 85.7 percent of their free throws and most impressively, they had at least 10-points from all five starts and at least 18 from three different players including Lauri Markkanen, Rawle Alkins and Alonzo Trier.
Zona is a deep, talented team and such a big offensive performance—in what has now become a trend—could easily go to this team’s head. It’s foolish to think any team won’t be pumped to play any game in the NCAA Tournament, but the Wildcats need to be careful not to get too complacent with their offense. Still, this team is rolling and they’ve found a formula that works. If they stick to it, that’ll make them even more dangerous rather than less.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
One of the things that makes St. Mary’s so good is their ability to outrebound most teams, but they’re at a notable disadvantage in terms of size against Arizona. At the same time, the Wildcats’ offense should be able to handle the Gaels’ strong defense. Arizona is peaking at the right time in terms of offensive prowess.
The Wildcats were an offensive force in their Pac-12 Tournament win and they once again continued the trend—albeit against North Dakota—to kick off the their tourney action.
The Gaels are no pushover matchup. They’re a good shooting team and have good balance, but Arizona is red-hot and have the roster to match the momentum. Luck always helps in a tournament like this, but luck and skill? That’s a recipe for a Final Four appearance.
College Basketball Odds: Arizona 83, Saint Mary’s 78
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