With the North Carolina Tar Heels getting to pretty much play in their own backyard through the first weekend of the Big Dance, you can pretty much pencil them into the Sweet 16. After that, it gets much tougher to decipher the South Region with a number of team’s making appearances for the first time in years, and others making their very first in program history. All kinds of young talent is littered throughout this bracket, so it will no doubt be up for grabs should Roy’s boys fail to live up their top billing.
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ODDS TO WIN SOUTH REGION
North Carolina +135
Kentucky +220
UCLA +400
Butler +900
Wichita State +1400
Minnesota +2200
Cincinnati +2000
Seton Hall +5000
Kansas State +5000
Middle Tennessee +5000
Wake Forest +6600
Dayton +6600
Arkansas +6600
Winthrop +12500
Kent State +100000
Northern Kentucky +50000
Texas Southern +100000
Butler Bulldogs +900
I’m a big fan of teams that are efficient at both ends of the court this time of year. Butler checks both boxes with it ranked No. 17 in offensive efficiency and No. 49 in defensive efficiency per the current Pomeroy Ratings. On top of that, it’s played to one of the toughest schedules in the country, so it will enter the Big Dance firmly tested. This is a club that handed defending champ Villanova two of its three overall losses this season, and stands 3-1 on neutral courts with two of those wins coming against tourney teams Arizona and Vanderbilt.
Chris Holtmann has done a fantastic job taking the torch from Brad Stevens after he bolted for Beantown in never allowing his kids to think they can be beaten. This club battled back to win a number of games it looked destined to lose, and that type of confidence goes a long way this time of the year. It won’t be easy however. After dealing with Winthrop’s offense in the first round, it’ll get a whole lot more defensive over the weekend against either Minnesota or Middle Tennessee State. If it can avoid the upset, anything can happen against any team in the upper half of the bracket.
Wichita State Shockers +1400
So let me get this straight; the Shockers were installed No. 10 seeds but check in as the fifth team with the shortest odds in the South Region. That makes absolutely no sense! Cincinnati, Minnesota, Dayton, Arkansas and Seton Hall all have longer odds than the Shockers to win the bracket. This is your classic example of the linemakers calling the selection committee out, and you can bet your dollar Gregg Marshall’s kids are going to do everything in their power to make them look a fool.
It’s such a crock that the Flyers and Shockers meet in the first round! Each has the ability to spring major upsets, but that won’t be allowed to play out due to the committee’s pig-headed ways. A glance at the Shockers overall stats and you have no choice but to be impressed. Top-20 in both scoring offense and defense. Top-5 in 3-point percentage and field goal percentage defense as well as rebounding margin. The stats speak for themselves. However, they were accrued against a less than impressive cast of opponents. I’m still willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and expect them to perform in the NCAA tournament like they have numerous times in the past.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +5000
I know it’s the trendy pick, but I simply can’t help myself. Kermit Davis’ squad has put some mad loot in my pockets all season long with it covering 23 of 33 lined games. This team is the full package, and it showed it’s no doubt one of the premiere mid-major programs in the country by going out and winning 30 of its 34 played games. I get that it comes out of a weak conference, but it dominated said conference and has numerous players back from last year’s team that shocked Michigan State in the first round.
The motor never stops with this team. It takes great care of its possessions of the basketball, shoots 49 percent from the field, limits the opposition to just over 63 points per game, and doesn’t give up many offensive rebounds. It’s only a 1-point dog in the 12/5 matchup with over seeded Minnesota and can beat either Butler or Winthrop should it get past the Golden Gophers. This club got a taste of success in this tournament last season, and will be clamoring for more this time around.
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