The window of opportunity has probably already closed on the Dallas Mavericks. Dirk Nowitzki's retirement is imminent, and Mark Cuban has really never put together the team around him to become a legitimate dynasty. That said, the Mavs did win 50 games last season, and anything less than that would be considered an abject failure, even in the toughest division in the NBA.
NBA FUTURES ODDS, SEASON WIN TOTAL
Odds To Win the NBA Championship: +9000
Regular Season Win Total: 36.5
The oddsmakers are tipping Dallas to fall backwards by a whopping 14 wins this season, but it's tough to argue with that sentiment. Teams at this level tend to age in a hurry, and it feels like everyone just goes over the hill at the same time and things fall apart.
It also doesn't help that Dallas resides in the toughest division in the NBA, and it's tough to see how it will finish any better than fourth at best.
COMING AND GOING
Dallas' leading scorer from a year ago, Monta Ellis is now gone, and that leaves a massive hole for scoring purposes. Raymond Felton will be asked to do more now that Rajon Rondo has opted out and has gone to Sacramento, while a lot will be expected of John Jenkins in his first opportunity to be a legitimate starter at the two-guard spot.
Deron Williams has come to "Big D," but we're not sure at this point in his career if he brings any legitimate tangible value to the table. Zaza Pachulia was probably the most notable offseason signing after DeAndre Jordan reneged on a deal struck with Dallas to go back to the Clippers. Pachulia will be asked to replace Tyson Chandler in the middle.
Wes Matthews signed a big free agent deal as well, but he's coming off of a season-ending knee injury last year and could be more of a liability than an asset early in the year.
STAR TO WATCH
Dirk hasn't been asked to carry this team from a scoring standpoint for the last few years because of Ellis' presence, but does he have another season in him of 25+ points per game? He hasn't done it since 2009-10, but if there was a time for him to really get back on the horse and come up big for the only team he's ever known, this would be it.
There's a concern, though. Nowitzki only averaged a tick under 30 minutes per game last season. If he can't do better than that this year, the Mavs are going to have a lot of trouble scoring.
IN 2015-16, THE DALLAS MAVERICKS WILL WIN…
32 games.
The Southwest Division is just a nightmare, for starters. We suspect that the rest of these teams are all going to win 50 times, and as a result, that's 16 games in which the Mavericks are lucky if they win six in division.
Scoring is going to be a real challenge for this squad in 2015-16, something you didn't think you'd say for a club which shot 46.3 percent from the field for the year and was third best in the Association at 105.2 points per game.
There's no one left to shoot the three, there's no one left to guard on the perimeter, and there's no one left to be an enforcer in the middle to rebound the basketball and protect the rim. If the Mavs are going to go up-tempo, they'll rank in the bottom three in the league in total defense, something they aren't going to be able to come back from.
We have a suggestion for Nowitzki: Just retire now. It isn't getting any better in Dallas for quite some time.
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