The Golden State Warriors (72-17 SU, 49-39-1 ATS) have only been beaten twice in the postseason, but they will be pushed to the brink of elimination on Monday night if they don't beat the Memphis Grizzlies (61-29 SU, 45-42-3 ATS).
ODDS ANALYSIS
We're actually a little surprised that the odds in this series haven't changed much. Memphis has gone from +10.5 in Game 1 to just +4.5 in Game 4, and the difference between those two spreads is merely home court advantage.
Still, the Grizz are 2-1 SU and ATS to show for their work here in the second round of the playoffs.
INJURY REPORT
Mike Conley is back in the lineup and is playing at a very high level, and the Grizzlies are a lot better off for it.
However, the Warriors haven't avoided the injury bug in the Western Conference Semifinals. Marreese Speights hasn't played a ton, but his calf injury is going to see him in street clothes in Game 4. David Lee, who was a healthy scratch in Game 3, should see more minutes as a result.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"I have to play better for us to win games, especially on the road. I hold myself to a high standard. I haven't reached it yet. So looking forward to the challenge of getting that level in Game 4, setting the tone… could be a different outcome." – Warriors guard Stephen Curry on what he needs to do in order to lead the Dubs in Game 4
BETTING TRENDS
- The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games overall, including going just 1-2 ATS their three playoff games to date.
- The Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games played in the Western Conference Semifinals.
- The UNDER is 7-2 in Memphis' last seven games overall, including a perfect 3-0 in this series.
KEY STATS
-20: The differential in fast break points in this series for the Grizzlies. All things considered, that's not a bad total differential in three games. If Golden State gets out and runs to the point that it goes +15 or +20 in the fast break department, Memphis is going to be in a heck of a lot of trouble.
23.1 percent: The three-point shooting percentage for Golden State in the last two games of this series. The Warriors have gone 6-of-26 in each of those two games, and six made triples won't cut it if the Dubs expect to split these two games in the Grizzlies’ house.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It still seems a bit fishy to us that the Grizzlies are very sizeable underdogs in this game. They were +4.5 in Game 3 and won handily by 10, and they were +10 on the road in Game 2 and won that game as well.
The bottom line is that most believe that Golden State is still going to win this series and win it in six games, winning each game by double-digits.
In live betting, the Grizzlies have been undervalued every step of the way, so we have no reason to believe that they are anything but undervalued on the point spread as well. Memphis could legitimately push the Dubs to the brink of elimination on Monday night.
Memphis 102, Golden State 95
BookMaker sent out the NBA odds for this Monday game before anyone else in the industry. The Warriors were lined at -4.5, while the total surfaced at 196. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, totals and spreads. Log in, and start gambling during the game now!
Access live betting from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker's live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneylines are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker right now! Bet on the NBA today as the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies square off Monday, May 11, 2015 at 9:30 p.m. ET at the FedEx Forum. The matchup will be televised nationally on TNT.
