The Houston Rockets (64-30 SU, 55-39 ATS) learned their lessons playing against the Clippers in the second round of the playoffs to become just the eighth team in league history to win a series after falling behind 3-1. They've got a lot to learn in a short period of time before Game 1 against the Golden State Warriors (75-17 SU, 52-39-1 ATS), a team which swept them in the regular season by winning all four games by double digits.
BE WARY OF THE RUN
The run. You know it's coming. Golden State knows it's coming. Houston knows it's coming. Everyone at Oracle Arena knows it's coming. And every live bettor should know that it is coming, too.
The Warriors are going to go on a tear at some point against the Rockets where they roll off a dozen straight points or something of the sorts. It's not really a matter of if, rather when. The timing of that run can be devastating depending upon when it is, and live bettors have to do their best to try to figure out the signs of when that is going to happen.
If you look back at the history of these two teams this year, that run generally starts in the second quarter or so and runs through the third.
Houston was outscored by Golden State by a total of 61 points in four games. In the second and third quarters of those four games, the Rockets were outdone by 58 points, meaning in the first and fourth quarters, they were at least able to hang around.
The Rockets lost six of the eight second and third quarters they played against the Warriors this year, and in three of those eight in totality, Golden State won by double figures.
Does this script sound familiar? In Houston's three losses to the Clippers, it was outscored by at least nine points in two second quarters and all three of the third quarters. You're just not winning games when you're getting whipped by 15+ points in the middle periods of games.
By the way, for good measure, it was the second quarter when Golden State went on its runs to put away Memphis as well in two of the last three games of that series.
THE HOWARD EFFECT
The only times that we have seen the Warriors struggle in this postseason is when they have gotten bulled around in the paint. The one game that New Orleans probably should have won against Golden State was thanks to not only Anthony Davis getting into the paint, but other players driving to the hoop as well to challenge the bigs and force men like Harrison Barnes to defend the whole half court.
When Memphis won Games 2 and 3 against the Dubs, it scored 42 and 46 points in the paint, and both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol had big games.
Enter: Dwight Howard.
Take Howard at face value. He isn't a good foul shooter. He is a bit of a whiner on the court. He's known to take games off. But he's 6-foot-11, and when he's right, he's the best rebounder in the entire NBA.
Howard's last three games against the Clippers, he had 20 and 15, 20 and 21 and 16 and 15, and he successfully stayed out of foul trouble in all three games.
The Warriors aren't going to challenge Howard on the inside when they're on offense, and in all likelihood, they are going to let him get the ball one-on-one in the paint just to keep the rock out of James Harden's hands.
If Game 1 is going to get dicey for the Dubs, this is where it is going to happen. If Houston is slowing things down just a bit and working the post with Howard and potentially with Josh Smith or Terrence Jones as well, this could become a very frustrated Golden State outfit.
Though it's always risky to bet against Golden State in live betting (see: Run, the), we can see a scenario playing out where the Rockets are just consistently frustrating the Warriors instead of the other way around. That's your cue to live bet on Houston and hope for the best, knowing that you're probably getting great value against the general public which believes that the Warriors are unstoppable.
The NBA betting lines for this Tuesday game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Warriors opened at -10, while the total came out at 219.5. Live wagering during commercials offers adjusted moneylines, totals and spreads. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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