The Houston Rockets (59-27 SU, 51-35 ATS) lost their first chance at taking the Dallas Mavericks (51-35 SU, 37-47-2 ATS) out of the playoffs. They'll have another shot on Tuesday night and will be heavily favored to do so then.
TROUBLE BREWING FOR DALLAS
The Rockets found the right formula to beat the Mavericks in Game 4, but they did it a little too late. Josh Smith and Corey Brewer were nuts at the outset of the quarter, as they started off a combined 10-for-10 from the field between them and helped chip away at a lead which stood at 19 at the outset of the quarter.
Quietly, these two men have had huge series, as they have both scored in double figures in all four games in spite of the fact that neither one has played 30 minutes in any of these games.
It's strange to think that Houston's best players on the court have been Brewer and Smith and not James Harden and Dwight Howard, but at least if you look at advanced stats and do the math on counting stats per 48 minutes, the two men on the bench have really given the boost to the Rockets that they have needed.
However, if these two slow down and start jacking up long range shots that aren't going in, be on the lookout for a good live betting line on Dallas. Brewer and Smith might be the only things separating the Mavs and some history, as they are certainly capable of chipping away at this series lead and forcing this series back to Dallas.
EFFICIENT ELLIS
By all accounts, Monta Ellis had a better game in Game 3 of this series than he did in Game 4 for the Mavs. He scored 34 points and had nine assists with just one turnover in Game 3, while he had 31 points with three assists and five turnovers in Game 4.
The difference? Defensively, Ellis was a better player in general in Game 4, and it showed in his +/-. The Mavericks were a stunning +20 when Ellis was on the floor in Game 4. They were -6 when he was out there in spite of his excellent numbers in Game 3.
Ellis has to really be careful in this one, though. He has already shot 23 threes in this series, which is almost double the average number of threes he took in the regular season. If he starts getting irresponsible with the ball and his shot selection slips, the Mavs are as good as dead.
FAST BREAKING TOWARDS THE OVER
The amount of fast break points in this series has been ridiculous. Often times, pace of play is a lying statistic in the NBA. Just because you have more possessions doesn't mean you have more points (see: Jordan, Hack-A in the Clippers/Spurs series).
In this case though, fast break points do tell the whole saga in the Lone Star State showdown.
In Game 2, there were "just" 24 fast break points between the two teams. That was also the only game in this series which didn't reach the total.
In Games 1, 3 and 4, there were 50, 50 and 41 fast break points respectively, and all three games comfortably made it past the total.
Betting totals in live betting can be tricky, and the fact that overs are generally square plays, especially in series like this, could be deceiving. But keep an eye on the breakneck pace these two are playing at. If there is a game where things are going to slow down, this is the one, especially if the Rockets are getting closer to closing out the series. Unders in live betting might be wise, but only if we're seeing half the fast break action that we have been coming across in this series so far.
BookMaker will have the spread for this Tuesday soiree the night before the game. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The showdown between the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets will start at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2015, at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX. The contest will be broadcast on TNT.
