The last time the Phoenix Suns won a game in the Bay Area their starting point guard was Steve Nash, who tallied a double-double with 14 points and 15 assists. That was seven years ago and in between the Suns have dropped 11 in a row to the Golden State Warriors inside Oracle Arena, and 11 straight overall in the series. The good news is that Phoenix hasn’t lost to the Dubs this season. The bad news is that Monday’s tilt is the first of four games the rest of the season.
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Odds Analysis
It’s been another long year for the Suns as they try desperately to stay out of the Western Conference cellar. They aren’t helping themselves by losing four straight, nine of 10, and 12 of their last 14 games. They may have hit rock-bottom on Tuesday when they were stomped 129-81 at home by the Spurs. The 48-point loss matched the worst in franchise history, which was achieved in the season opener and led to Earl Watson’s firing. While the record sucks, the Suns have been decent against the spread going 26-28-2 overall.
When you’re consistently favored by double-digits, it’s hard to maintain a decent ATS record. That’s what the Warriors are faced with again this season and they’ll be expected by oddsmakers to win this matchup by a large margin. The Dubs covered the 14-point line against the Mavs on Thursday, but are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games and 11-15-1 ATS in their 27 home games.
Player to Watch
When Eric Bledsoe was suspended then traded away earlier in the season, the Suns lost their only true point guard. They’ve been scrambling to cover the position ever since and it hasn’t worked out. The Suns have tried Mike James, Tyler Ulis, Isaiah Canaan, Devin Booker and Josh Gray at the position with little success.
So the Suns pulled the trigger on a deadline deal to bring in their next option, fourth-year pro Elfrid Payton. Phoenix sent a second-round pick to Orlando for the former No. 10 overall pick and the club feels Payton could stabilize a position that has been a season-long issue.
He was averaging 13.0 points, 6.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds during his time with the Magic and could be a valuable addition due to his improved accuracy. Payton is shooting 52 percent from the floor, including 37.3 percent from behind the arc. The hope is Payton can run the offense and open things up for Booker, who’s better off the ball.
Key Stat
1 – As in the Warriors are No. 1 in most offensive categories. There was a stretch last week where the Warriors were “out of whack.” Like most great teams, the funk didn’t last long. The Dubs were back to doing what they do best in a cover romp over the Mavs.
When they lost two straight for the first time this season and three out of four games, the offense wasn’t the problem, rather the Dubs couldn’t stop anyone. They were torched by the Jazz and OKC in that stretch. The Dubs were efficient on offense, but the point totals weren’t what we expect.
Despite those losses where they averaged over 11 points below their season total, the Dubs continue to lead the NBA in points per game, field goal percentage, three-point percentage and free throw percentage. And they get a Suns team Monday that doesn’t defend well. Phoenix allows a NBA-high 112.5 points per game.
Free NBA ATS Picks
There’s never a good time to face the Warriors, but this might be the worst scenario for the Suns. The Dubs had their rough patch and bounced back with a drubbing of the Mavericks. Phoenix hasn’t gotten over their season-long funk and they’re dealing with injury concerns to some of their best players.
Booker missed a few games and Ulis departed the San Antonio contest, leaving the already shorthanded Suns with less talent available. The Warriors will win this game and the only question is by how many points. Phoenix could make a run against the Warriors bench, but it’s doubtful.
NBA Odds: Warriors 122, Suns 105
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