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Another strong performance by Stephen Curry earned the Warriors their 67th victory on Tuesday, but for the fifth time in six games, Golden State failed to cover the spread. Bettors should take note as the Warriors get set for their Friday night showdown against Boston.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Warriors haven’t lost a home game, but ATS they’re just over .500, covering the spread 19 times in their 36 games.
While that certainly leaves the door open for the Celtics—as does Golden State’s recent struggles ATS overall—Boston is just 18-19 ATS on the road. It’s also fallen in back-to-back ATS and six of nine.
WHEN THE BOSTON CELTICS ARE ON OFFENSE
The Celtics aren’t the Warriors offensively, but who is? Still, Boston ranks No. 5 in the NBA with 105.6 PPG despite a lower shooting percentage.
When Boston finds its way to the free throw line, however, it takes advantage, sinking 79.1 percent of those shots. The Celtics are also a strong rebounding club with 45.1 RPG. That should allow them to at least keep pace with the Warriors in terms of opportunities and second chances on offense.
Jae Crowder is currently dealing with a right ankle sprain so keep tabs on his status heading into the game. He’s missed his eighth straight with the injury and the Celtics have covered the spread in only three of them. His presence inside is big. If he is on the court, watch to see how well he moves before taking Boston to cover, even if it gets off to a nice start.
If Crowder is a go, that gives Boston six different players with at least 10 PPG. Marcus Smart is the team’s seventh highest scorer just shy of the double-digit mark with 9.3 PPG.
On the outside, the team has a good core of players including Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley. The duo isn’t exactly Curry and Klay Thompson, but they’re scoring 22.3 and 15.1 PPG respectively with Thomas also doing a good job spreading the ball around with 6.3 APG.
Thomas has been even better of late with 13 straight games of at least 20 points, including eight of at least 25 and three of at least 30.
WHEN THE GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS ARE ON OFFENSE
Curry is back to form following an un-Curry-like road trip. He’s scored 28 PPG in the team’s last four games, all at home. In their latest win over Washington, he had 26 while Thompson added 16 and Draymond Green took care of business inside with 15-points and 16-rebounds, adding nine assists.
It isn’t often you get a forward—particularly one that’s not the team’s headliner—that is so good at moving the ball around, but Green averages 7.5 APG. He also notched a triple-double with 13-points, 11-assists and 11-rebounds on Sunday against Philadelphia.
When you consider Curry is the best player in the sport, leading the NBA with 30 PPG and the team also has another elite guard with 22.6 PPG along with a forward that’s a triple-double threat every time out, it’s no wonder they’re far and away the best offensive team in the sport.
With 115.3 PPG, a 48.7 percent shooting mark on field goals and a 41.6 percentage behind the arc, it’s hard for anyone to stop Golden State.
Sure, the Warriors were held to 79-points by the Spurs a couple weeks ago, but even that was on the road. When San Antonio faced the Warriors in Oakland, Golden State scored 120 in a 30-point blowout.
Keep a close eye on Boston early. They were able to hang with the Warriors offense in Boston and may be able to early in this game. If that’s the case, jump on the Warriors to cover late. Given their dominance at home, the Celtics may be able to stay close for a while, but the Warriors should run away with this game at the end, at least enough to cover.
BETTING TRENDS AND MATCHUPS
In their last matchup, the Celtics pushed the Warriors into overtime before falling 124-119 at home and that was in a game that Golden State played without Thompson.
With Thompson sidelined, Curry still managed a double-double with 38-points and 11-rebounds, adding eight assists as well. Draymond Green added a double-double as well with the Celtics defense unable to stop the team inside the paint or around the perimeter.
Given Golden State’s offensive prowess and Boston’s solid offensive rankings, look for another high scoring affair and jump on the over if either basketball team gets off to a slow start to suppress the over/under.
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