Miami has clinched its postseason spot, leaving this game to mean more to the Bulls who at 39-38 are still fighting an uphill battle for a playoff berth. History is not on their side here either as the Heat took care of business when they last played Chicago, winning 118-96 less than a month ago.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
A four game losing streak near the end of March was a major blow to the Bulls’ playoff hopes, but in their last four games they’ve done a reasonable job rebounding, winning three of those four games. They’ve also covered the spread in four of their last five.
On the other side of the court, Miami has lost three straight games ATS, all on the road. They’ll return home for Thursday’s game where they’ve covered the spread—and won SU—their last three games. They’re 20-17-1 ATS at home overall.
WHEN THE CHICAGO BULLS ARE ON OFFENSE
Chicago is a bit below average offensively, scoring just 101.4 PPG. They’ve failed to reach triple digits in four of their last seven games.
As a team, the Bulls are shooting only 43.9 percent on field goals and are going against a top-10 ranked defense, holding the opposition to 98.5 PPG—the fourth best in the NBA—and allowing just a 44.2 percent field goal percentage, ranking ninth in that category.
While all of that spells trouble for Chicago’s offense, the Bulls are better shooting from the outside where Jimmy Butler is the leader of a strong backcourt. They’re ranked fifth in the NBA shooting behind the arc while Miami is merely average against the outside shot.
The health of Derrick Rose and E’Twaun Moore is an important factor. Keep an eye on that situation to see if Rose will have enough support around him outside to take care of business.
With Moore as his number two, Butler scored 25-points to help Chicago top Milwaukee 102-98 last time out. You can expect big things again from Butler, particularly with the Heat having concerns about Dwyane Wade’s health. Outside of him, it would come down to Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson outside and Butler can handle them.
WHEN THE MIAMI HEAT ARE ON OFFENSE
The Heat are actually scoring fewer PPG this season than the inconsistent Bulls, but they’re the far better shooting team, shooting 46.9 percent from the floor.
Defensively, Chicago does offer a challenge as they’re the better rebounding team averaging 2.4 more boards per game than Miami and putting up strong numbers inside and out.
The injury to Chris Bosh is a huge loss and with Dwyane Wade dealing with a neck injury, the Heat could be without their two top players.
Watch Wade’s status closely as the game inches near and if he does take the court see how he looks early before jumping on the Heat to cover the spread.
Without Wade or Bosh, center Hassan Whiteside is the team’s leading scorer with just 14.1 PPG. He has, however, topped 20 points in four of his last five games, stepping up in Bosh’s absence as a bigger offensive presence inside.
While Miami’s best players are all questionable at best, the team is at least deeper than the Bulls. There are six different players with at least a dozen PPG and two more averaging 8.7 PPG or more.
BETTING TRENDS AND MATCHUPS
Without Bosh and with questions surrounding Wade’s health, the key matchup in this game is Whiteside against Bulls’ center Pau Gasol.
The Heat need to dominate inside the paint leading to the likelihood that Butler controls the outside for Chicago.
Gasol is outshooting Whiteside overall, but Whiteside’s last few games show what kind of offensive presence he can be. Defensively, Whiteside has 11.8 RPG to Gasol’s 11 and 3.7 BPG to just two for Gasol.
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat will tipoff Thursday, April 7, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at American Airlines Arena. The contest will be broadcast nationally on TNT.
