Atlanta gets the Cavaliers at home for the first time since being swept in the Eastern Conference final last season. The Hawks have waited a long time and look to finally get their revenge while continuing their climb up the conference standings.
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SCHEDULING
While they’ve held the top spot in the Eastern Conference for most of the season, the Cavaliers have hardly looked like a title contender recently. In the past two weeks, the Cavs took a 21-point loss at Miami, were handed a troubling defeat by the lowly Nets and blew a 20-point lead at home in a loss to the Rockets. They still lead the East by a few games over Toronto, but if Cleveland sleepwalks to the finish line, that top seed may not be theirs. The Cavs will hook up with Atlanta twice in the final seven games with Friday’s matchup the second of a back-to-back. Cleveland is 10-7 SU and 7-9-1 ATS in those situations this year, but has gone 0-3 SU and ATS in the second of its past three back-to-backs.
The Hawks begin their final homestand of the season with Friday’s tilt and look for some separation in the East standings during the next four games. With Washington losing on Tuesday, the Hawks are guaranteed their ninth straight postseason trip – the longest current run in the conference. The playoff spot became virtually assured with their recent play. The Hawks won four straight, nine out of 10 and 12 out of 14 games going into their contest at Toronto Wednesday night.
INJURIES
LeBron James didn’t play Tuesday night as the Cavs try to rest their key players as much as possible over the final games of the regular season. Kyrie Irving sat on Saturday, but coach Tyronn Lue may rethink his strategy with the No. 1 seed not locked up.
Atlanta is relatively healthy entering the home stretch. Reserve forward Thabo Sefolosha returned earlier in the week from an ankle injury that forced him out the Detroit game.
KEY MATCHUP
LeBron James didn’t win the MVP award last season and he won’t win it this year either. But the Cavs’ general ineptness without him is evidence that he should receive closer consideration. Losing a 20-point lead is never good; whether James is on the floor or not. That’s what the Cavs did Tuesday, dropping them to 4-13 over the past two seasons without James. Cleveland needs James on the court. Not just for the 25 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game he delivers, but for his energy and enthusiasm that always uplifts the team. When Lue does this – rest a healthy James – the intent is obvious. The team wants to preserve him for a deep playoff run. Winning in the short term remains a goal, but there are obviously broader objectives. It’s hard to argue with the strategy. James is having his finest month of the season scoring 25.7 points with 8.5 rebounds per game in March while playing the fewest minutes per contest of any full month.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Over the past month the Hawks have resembled the 60-win team from last season. The ball movement is Warriors-like, defense is stifling, and bench play has allowed starters to conserve energy. But the Cavaliers are Atlanta’s kryptonite, winning the last five meetings that included a sweep in the Eastern Conference final last season. The teams haven’t played since Nov. 21 when the Cavs romped to a 109-97 win, but that was a long time ago. Cleveland has the individual talent to match up with any club, but the chemistry just doesn’t seem to be in place. The Hawks have it, and it’s carried them up the conference standings. Cleveland will likely represent the East in the Finals, but the Hawks will take this game from a club that played the night before.
Atlanta 107, Cleveland 104
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