In their first meeting of the year, the Mavericks handed the Warriors one of only four losses this season, beating them 114-91. Golden State will be looking for revenge as they host the Mavs and this time Stephen Curry will be on the court.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Mavericks have had a pretty strong season, sitting five games over .500 SU and 10 game over ATS.
Those betting on Dallas have been quite pleased with their return, particularly of late. Over the Mavs’ last 10 games, they’re just 5-5 SU, but a bankroll-building 7-2-1 ATS.
As for the Warriors, they’re 40-4 SU, but not nearly as strong ATS. Still, they’ve faired quite well, covering in 26 of their 44 games. Over their last seven games, however, bettors have lost money with Golden State covering just three times.
WHEN THE DALLAS MAVERICKS ARE ON OFFENSE
The Mavericks are an average team offensively and should be able to do well enough to match their 101 PPG against the Warriors.
Golden State is all about its fast-paced offense around Curry and company, leaving the opposition with a chance to rack up the points themselves, though no one can really match Golden State.
Regardless, look for Dallas to have a solid offensive showing. Keep a particularly close eye on Dirk Nowitzki. He’s dealing with a knee injury and is the team’s top scorer. If hindered, that could slow down the offense. Otherwise, if he looks healthy, look to jump on the over, particularly if either team gets off to a slower offensive start.
As for the rest of the team, the Mavs have Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews who’ll get the assignment against Curry and Thompson. While not Curry or Thompson, they’re strong performers and two of the five players Dallas has on the roster averaging at least 10.4 PPG.
Inside the paint, it’s the Chandler Parsons show. He’s had some spotty performances with three games of eight or fewer points in the last eight games, but he’s also put up 56 combined points in the team’s last two games—both wins ATS.
If Parsons is one his game again, consider backing the Mavs to cover.
WHEN THE GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS ARE ON OFFENSE
The Warriors tore up the NBA’s second ranked defense last week, hanging 132 on the Cavaliers and proceeded to score at least 122 in their next two games.
Offensively, nobody stacks up with Golden State. The Warriors are first in PPG, second in field goal percentage and fourth in rebounds. The team is averaging 114.7 PPG.
Guards Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are superstars in this game and both are shooting at least 42.5 percent behind the arc to help lead the nation’s best three point shooting team.
Curry is shooting 51 percent from the floor and scoring 30.1 PPG with 6.6 APG. Thompson, meanwhile, backs up the NBA’s top scorer with 20.5 PPG, ranking No. 17.
The stars are supported by a number of excellent players who perform their roles. Forwards Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes are each tallying over a dozen PPG themselves while Green leads the team in both rebounds with 9.5 RPG and assists with 7.3 APG.
Barnes, meanwhile, is an excellent shooter like Green. Both are shooting over 47 percent from the floor, but Barnes has one of the team’s better free throw marks.
Andre Iguodala, Festus Ezeli and Andrew Bogut add even more depth and provide challenges for the opposition inside the paint.
The Golden State offense is as much of a sure thing as there is in the NBA. If Dallas is able to get out to an early lead—or even keep it close enough to drive down the spread, take the opportunity to back the Warriors at a more favorable price.
BETTING TRENDS AND MATCHUPS
Without Curry not on the court back in December, the Mavericks held the Warriors’ starting guards to just 18 combined points as Thompson struggled as the star on the court, shooting just 4-for-15 from the floor.
Even without Curry and with Thompson’s struggles the Warriors managed to score 91 points.
The battle of the guards will once against be crucial for Dallas to go for the upset or even just cover the spread.
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