The season series between the two Texas-based franchises is even at 1-1 with each winning on the others home floor. The Mavericks look to continue that trend when they visit Houston, and doing so means stopping James Harden, who dropped 25 on the Mavs in each of the first two meetings.
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SCHEDULING
Dallas begins a three-game road trip with Sunday’s contest in Houston, and will also visit the Lakers on Tuesday ahead of a showdown with Golden State on Wednesday. While the Mavericks won’t catch San Antonio in the Southwest Division, they are in the thick of the playoff race for a lower seed in the Western Conference, right along with division rivals Houston and Memphis. The Mavs are just a .500 team on the road, going 12-12 SU and 13-10-1 ATS and improved play away from the American Airlines Center could have them contesting the Clippers and Thunder for a top four spot.
The Rockets hope to finish off their three-game home-stand on a positive note before starting a stretch where they play nine of 12 games away from home. Following Sunday’s tilt with the Mavs, Houston hits the road for three straight and also has a five-game excursion tossed in. While Houston hasn’t been great at the Toyota Center, they are worse on the road. Grabbing a victory to close out the home-stand would be nice before a lengthy stretch on the road. It won’t be easy against a Mavs club that won 110-98 in Houston back in November.
INJURIES
Dirk Nowitzki missed his first game due to injury when he sat out Wednesday with swelling in his right knee. He’s listed as questionable heading into the weekend games, but says he will test the knee at the team’s shootaround to determine if he can play. Also, backup point guard Raymond Felton is expected to return to the lineup after missing a game with an eye injury.
Rockets center Dwight Howard is doubtful to play due to a sprained ankle. He left one minute into Wednesday’s game and an MRI later revealed the injury. Houston is also dealing with Jason Terry’s knee soreness and a shoulder injury to Montrezl Harrell. Both are questionable heading into the weekend. The good news for the Rockets is that Patrick Beverley is expected back after he missed a game due to an ankle injury.
KEY MATCHUP
Mavs coach Rick Carlisle wants to manage expectations for Chandler Parsons, especially after the forward dropped 30 on the T-Wolves in an efficient offensive performance. Parsons carried Dallas to a 106-94 victory while Nowitzki was out nursing a bad knee. It’s certainly not fair to expect Parsons to light it up like he did against Minnesota on a regular basis. He made 13 of 20 shots, hitting half of his six three-point attempts and repeatedly attacked off the dribble, particularly when exploiting mismatches while playing power forward in small-ball lineups. Parsons is still in the process of coming back from major surgery, one that some thought should have sidelined him until December. It’s not like this game came out of nowhere. Parsons has been playing well since his minutes restriction was lifted, averaging 12.5 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists while shooting 50.3 percent from the floor. There have been flashes of brilliance, and they’ve come more frequently in the past few weeks.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Many have wondered how the Western Conference runners-up have turned into a middle-of-the-road team, but the answer seems fairly clear in retrospect. Halfway into the season, it’s safe to say the Rockets are a mediocre team. When facing the league’s elite, the Rockets often look like they don’t belong. In their three losses to Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland, they lost by double digits while giving up an average of 108 points. Houston has struggled to find an identity this basketball season. They’re a bad defensive team that isn’t good enough on offense to hide that fact, despite having James Harden producing crazy numbers once again. The teams split the first two games of the season series, but Dallas appears to be the team trending up at this point.
Dallas 105, Houston 99
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