The Oklahoma City Thunder flew under the radar as the third-best team in the Western Conference this season. The duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook fuel the NBA’s second-highest scoring offense against a Mavericks squad that had success once it slowed the pace.
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LOOK AHEAD
The Mavericks played fast for much of the season, but they slowed it down late and won seven of their final nine games, never allowing more than 98 points in that stretch after allowing more than 100 points in 19 of the previous 21 games. The Thunder, meanwhile, want to push the ball – they ranked second in the league with 110.2 points per game.
Oklahoma City is expected to roll through the Mavericks after winning all four regular season meetings. This could be the Thunder’s last chance to make a deep title run as All-Star forward Kevin Durant is slated to become a free agent and there are clear indications that he’s open to leaving Oklahoma City. Durant and Russell Westbrook carried the offense, but they will have to work hard against the Mavs, who played solid defense down the stretch.
INJURIES
Dallas played Wednesday’s season finale without guards J.J. Barea, who rested a groin strain, and Devin Harris, who has a sprained thumb. They also lost forward David Lee to a foot injury in the second quarter. Barea and Harris will likely play, but Lee is more of a question mark.
The Thunder were locked into the No. 3 seed for some time and that allowed coach Billy Donovan to rest up some of his regulars down the stretch. OKC enters the series relatively healthy.
KEY MATCHUP
Dallas is in the postseason for the 15th time in 16 seasons and will be hoping that 37-year-old forward Dirk Nowitzki can once again step up under the playoff pressure. Nowitzki saw his scoring average this season drop below 20 points per game for the third time in four seasons but he still led the team with 18.3. The league’s No. 6 all-time scorer doesn’t fire as often as in years past, but he’s still dangerous.
Nowitzki has a career scoring average of 25.3 in 140 postseason games and has stood in the Thunder’s way before. The Mavs beat OKC in the 2011 Western Conference Finals on their way to the NBA title. Nowitzki’s shooting touch for a 7-footer poses matchup problems for most teams and Thunder coach Billy Donovan said Dirk’s knowledge is just as important.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Slowing the pace and working the shot clock following an embarrassing 22-point loss in Sacramento on Mar. 27 turned the Mavericks’ season around. Before that system change, the Mavs were fading out of the playoff picture. Afterward, they went 7-1 and clinched a playoff spot. They’ll need to operate their style to near perfection in order to get a win in OKC.
Having Durant back for a full season has made all the difference for the Thunder. After missing the playoffs last season with Durant out for a majority of time with a foot injury, OKC claimed the third-best mark in the West behind an offense that scored better than 110 points per game. The Thunder have too many weapons to be slowed by Dallas and will collect a critical Game 2 win.
NBA Odds: Oklahoma City 110, Dallas 100
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