Miami is the home team and has a slightly better record so it will be the favorite in this showdown. The Nuggets have to play well down the stretch to catch the Portland Trail Blazers for the No. 8 seed in the West.
This game is essential for both sides but only one team can emerge victorious. The intensity should be high with so much on the line.
This war on the floor will go down Sunday, April 2, 2017, at 6 p.m. ET at the AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami, Florida. The game will be televised live on NBA TV.
We'll have NBA odds available for this and every game on the NBA Sunday schedule.
Odds Analysis
The Nuggets are 35-39 straight up and 39-33-2 against the spread. Denver is 19-15-1 against the spread on the road this season but will aim to do more than simply cover in this one. The Nuggets are 21-18-1 against the spread on the season as the underdogs.
The Heat is 37-38 straight up and 46-29 against the spread. Miami has played in 37 home games and covered in 23 of them. The Heat have lost LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in the past couple of years but a new core has done enough to surpass expectations and make them one of the best bets in the NBA. Miami is 18-11 against the spread as the favorite on the year.
Key Stat
1. That’s how many games separate both teams from another playoff contender, although the Heat are currently in the playoffs while the Nuggets are outside of it. Miami is trying to stay ahead of the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference as Chicago just picked up a nice win over the Cavs last time out. There are seven games remaining, so a strong finish should help the Heat qualify.
The Heat are tied with the Pacers currently tied in the standings, and as of now they would both make it into the postseason. It’s hard to imagine that this is the same Miami team that sat 11-30 midseason. The team’s toughest remaining matchup is the showdown with Cleveland on April 10th, but every game matters now.
The Nuggets are one game behind the Blazers, recently falling out of the eighth seed because of a two-game winning streak while Portland has won four straight. It would be tough for Denver to miss out, and a win here would go a long way in tracking down the Blazers.
Matchup to Watch
Nikola Jokic vs Hassan Whiteside. The Nuggets like to go to Jokic a lot, as he is averaging 16.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists on the year. Whiteside is a menace on defense, and even if he isn’t guarding Jokic for stretches, he can always clog up the paint and force bad shots.
Whiteside pulls down 14.0 rebounds per game and blocks 2.1 shots per contest. Jokic shoots a sparkling 62.8 from two-point range but easy buckets will be hard to come by in this one since Whiteside is such an intimidating presence down low.
Free NBA ATS Pick
Miami has looked really good after the slow start and should make its way into the playoffs. The Heat would like to avoid a first-round matchup with the Cavaliers, but either way they could be a tough out for whichever high seed has to play them.
The Nuggets would likely be easy fodder for the Golden State Warriors if they make the playoffs, but it would be good for the rebuilding team to get a taste of the postseason. While Denver is improving, the Heat is the better team.
Take Miami to defend its home court in a game that might not be as close as projected.
NBA Odds: Heat 109, Nuggets 101
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