The Golden State Warriors will get a chance for revenge against a Memphis Grizzlies team that shocked them in a head-to-head matchup in early December with a 21-point victory. Since that loss, the Warriors have won 10 of 11 games, with the only exception being a one-point loss to Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have been incredibly inconsistent since beating Golden State, going 5-6 with some big wins over Oklahoma City and Houston as well as disruptive losses to Sacramento and Orlando.
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Odds Analysis
When you set a record for wins in a season and follow up by acquiring a player like Kevin Durant to add to your star studded lineup, there should be little surprise that this team has been favored in every game they’ve played. They’ve been double-digit favorites now in 10 of their last 13 games though they’re only 4-9 ATS in that time.
The Warriors were 13-point favorites on the road the last time they faced the Grizzlies and although that didn’t go all that well, Golden State will host Memphis this time around and should enjoy a similarly lofty spread.
Memphis has been an incredible average team ATS. They’re 19-7 ATS overall and 8-8 ATS on the road. They’ve covered their last two games, but prior to that failed to cover in two in a row.
Last Meeting
The Warriors have lost five games all season and save for a 129-100 loss to the Spurs in their season opener while still getting their footing, the worst loss of the season came against this Memphis team.
The Grizzlies hosted the Warriors as the third game of a five game Golden State road trip and took both Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry more or less out of the game in route to a 110-89 win.
Those 89-points is the fewest points score by the Warriors this season and one of only two times a team has held them below 100-points. The team ranked first in scoring with 117.3 PPG and shooting just shy of fifty percent from the floor was quieted as Memphis’s dominating defense won in the battle between two teams with vastly different styles of play.
In the game, Thompson and Curry each shot just 4-for-14 from the floor and while Kevin Durant still had a solid game, he wasn’t able to shoulder the load himself. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies scored 110 which is a high number for a team built around defense with a much more deliberate pace of play than the fast-break Warriors.
Memphis won the battle in the paint and on the outside and got at least 11-points from seven different players. Tony Allen and Marc Gasol both scored 19 in the game to lead the team while JaMychal Green notched a double-double with 10 rebounds and 14 points. That was the only double-double in the game by either team.
Key Stats
The Grizzlies and Warriors rank first and second in defensive efficiency. Memphis gets the slight edge overall at .997 to 1.005, but with this game being played in Oakland, it’s Golden State with the advantage with a home defensive efficiency of 1.009 compared to the Grizzlies’ 1.056 on the road.
All in all, we’re getting into the nitty gritty picking apart these numbers. While the Memphis defense won the day in the last meeting of these two teams, it’s hard to expect Golden State’s offense to be shutout again. After all, the Warriors rank first in the NBA in offensive efficiency as well while the Grizzlies are way down at No. 24.
Curry and Thompson combined for just 25 points in the last meeting, but the two are averaging 23.9 and 21.7 PPG respectively. Having already gotten to see Memphis’s defense up close, you can expect some adjustments.
Free NBA ATS Picks
Look for a much better performance by Golden State this time around as Memphis will not be sneaking up on them. The Warriors will be out for revenge and given their defense stacks up rather well compared to Memphis and their offense trumps that of the Grizzlies quite substantially, you can expect the Warriors to get the win.
Still, don’t look for too high scoring of a game. The Grizzlies aren’t a particularly strong offensive group and while the Warriors aren’t likely to dip below 100-points again, they could get close to that threshold on Friday.
We’ve seen there are plenty of chances to go around for all three of Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Look for a big game from at least two of them while Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala—amongst others—can all do damage if Memphis pays to much attention to the big three and leaves others unattended.
On the other side of the floor, Mike Conley is playing like his old self which helps in the matchup against the Warriors killer backcourt. He’ll hold his own enough to keep this one reasonably close while Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph do damage inside the paint.
In the end, look for the Warriors to get the win, but if the spread gets near double-digits, we’ve already seen Memphis take care of Golden State so jump on the Grizzlies to cover any hefty spread.
NBA Odds: Warriors 103, Grizzlies 94
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