It’s a critical matchup with playoff implications in the Western Conference on the line when the Rockets visit Dallas. Along with Utah, the three teams are jousting for position for the last two playoff spots and the Mavs could deal a blow to Houston’s hopes, as the Rockets are on the outside looking in right now.
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SCHEDULING
The Rockets played like they had nothing to lose in a 118-110 victory over the Thunder on Sunday, a win that keeps Houston in the battle for a Western Conference playoff spot. The inconsistent Rockets have alternated wins and losses for six straight games as they desperately chase a trip to the postseason.
Wednesday’s game ranks high on the importance meter considering the Rockets are a game behind Dallas and Utah for the last two slots in the playoff race. Houston’s schedule sets up nicely, too, with games against the Suns, Lakers, Timberwolves and Kings to close the year. But that means nothing if the Rockets can’t win games and they haven’t won more than four in a row all season.
Riding a four-game winning streak, the Mavs moved ahead of the Rockets into a playoff spot and would like to put more distance between them with a much tougher closing stretch to the season. The Mavs have games with the Clippers, Jazz and Spurs to close the season and a two-game cushion would come in handy.
INJURIES
The Rockets have all hands on deck for the final stretch of the season, which could be either a good thing or a bad thing, depending on how they play.
Point guard Deron Williams has missed the Mavs’ last six games while dealing with a sports hernia and coach Rick Carlisle doesn’t think he’s close to a return. Williams played through the hernia for about a month, but the more he played the worse it got. It seems likely at this point that he will miss the remainder of the season. The team is already without Chandler Parsons, who underwent knee surgery and is out for the rest of the regular season.
KEY MATCHUP
James Harden is used to playing – a lot – and the Rockets are going to ride their superstar with a shot at the playoffs within their grasp. Harden has played the entire fourth quarter of five consecutive games and said he is not affected by fatigue and the numbers back him up. Harden has made 48.1 percent of his shots and 50 percent of his three-pointers in the fourth quarter of the past five games, averaging 10 points 2.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists in the final quarter of those games. “I’m 26. I’m young. I’m just going out there to do my job. That’s all I can do,” Harden said. Interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff believes Harden can handle the workload, but has also been careful to keep him off the floor between games. Harden leads the NBA with an average of 38.1 minutes per game. His late-game proficiency is another reason why the Rockets lead the NBA in fourth-quarter comeback wins.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
About a week ago it looked like the Mavs were going to lose their playoff spot in the Western Conference after holding a position in the top eight all year. Dallas has responded by winning four straight and is one game ahead of the Rockets for the final playoff spot with a crucial matchup between the two on Wednesday. They weren’t facing the stiffest competition in those games and need to navigate the remainder of the season without two weapons in Williams and Parsons. That won’t play well against the Rockets, who have the most fourth quarter wins in the NBA, having trailed at some point in the fourth quarter in 22 of their 38 wins. In some ways, they are built to come from behind, with a defense that forces the most turnovers and an offense that takes the most three-point shots. It’s scary to think where Houston might be if they played better basketball prior to the fourth quarter, but the ability to come from behind is a gift.
Houston 114, Dallas 111
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