The Nuggets have shown some flashes of promise with a young core and will aim to pick up a nice home win in this one. It could be a competitive matchup with the Rockets aiming to grab the win to stay near the top of the pack in the Western Conference.
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Odds Analysis
The Rockets are 11-6 straight up and 12-5 against the spread this season. Houston has been extremely impressive on the road this year, covering in nine of 11 matchups. The Rockets are 7-3 against the spread as the favorite this season and will aim to improve on that.
The Nuggets are 7-10 straight up but 11-6 against the spread as they have exceeded pessimistic expectations. Denver has been the underdog in all but three games this season but has done a nice job, covering in nine of the 14 matchups.
Key Stat
107 - Both teams are averaging more than that number of points this season. The Nuggets are putting up 107.1 points while the Rockets are one of the highest scoring teams in the league with 109.8 points per game.
Neither team is doing very well defensively, so this one figures to be a shootout. The Rockets are led in scoring by James Harden, who is averaging 28.9 points and adding 12.2 assists per game. Houston also has four other players averaging more than 12.4 points per game as Harden is the focal point but there is balance within the supporting cast.
The Nuggets are led in scoring by Wilson Chandler, who is averaging 18.3 points as well as 7.7 rebounds. Danilo Gallinari, Emmanuel Mudiay, Will Barton, Jamal Murray and Jusuf Nurkic are all averaging in double figures as well. Denver doesn’t have a ton of household names but its young core is growing together and could improve as the season goes on.
Matchup to Watch
The rebounding battle - The Rockets have the most talented player on the court in Harden, and he will set up the better looks for Houston. Denver has been able to stay in games because of its rebounding.
The Nuggets lead the league with 49.9 rebounds per game. Kenneth Faried leads the way on the boards for Denver but it is generally a group effort as several different players hit the glass hard.
Denver has done a nice job hustling and staying in games with rebounds. The Rockets get a lot of extra possessions based on their pace but are only middle of the pack in terms of rebounding, so it’s an area in which the Nuggets should have an advantage.
Free NBA ATS Picks
This is a crucial early-season game for both teams. The Rockets are good enough to win on the road and it would help their push as they aim for the playoffs.
Denver has looked improved this year and this could be an early-season statement win against a quality opponent. The thin air of Denver could take a toll on Houston, which plays at a fast pace.
While Harden could have a monster game and finish with a triple-double, the Nuggets should pull the upset behind a balanced offensive attack and a rebounding advantage. The scoring total should be really high as both teams can light up the scoreboard.
NBA Odds: Nuggets 118, Rockets 116
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