Denver has the superior record and will be at home in this matchup, which should make it the sizable favorite. Los Angeles looked good recently in a victory over the Suns but has been poor overall on the year. The Lakers are one of the worst teams in the NBA and are the underdog in the vast majority of their matchups. This one will be no exception.
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Odds Analysis
The Nuggets are 29-35 straight up and 32-30-2 against the spread. Denver has played in 33 home games this season and has been even, covering 16 times, failing to 16 times and pushing once. The Nuggets are 14-14-1 against the spread as the favorite this season.
The Lakers are 20-45 straight up and 28-35-2 against the spread. Los Angeles has played in 35 home games this season and have covered in 16 of them. The Lakers are 23-28-1 against the spread as the underdog this year.
Injury Report
Danilo Gallinari -- The Nuggets’ leading scorer missed Wednesday’s game against the Washington Wizards due to an illness and remains questionable heading into the weekend. The 28-year-old has missed 12 games this season already.
Gallinari is averaging 17.7 points per game this season for Denver. The team has gone 5-8 without the small forward, so his presence is important. Keep an eye on his availability as the game gets close as it could affect the spread and the outcome.
If Gallinari is out again against Los Angeles, Denver will turn to Wilson Chandler and Nikola Jokic to pick up the slack. The two are combining for 32 points and 11.3 rebounds per game this year.
Key Stat
111. That’s the number of points the Lakers and the Nuggets are giving up per game this season. If their previous performances on defense are any indication, this game could very well be a shootout.
With both defenses struggling to keep points off the board, it could come down to which team’s offense shows up in this one. The Nuggets have the advantage over the Lakers on offense, averaging 110.6 points per game compared to 104 by Los Angeles.
In a loss to the Wizards earlier this week, the Nuggets gave up 123 points. The Lakers have gone 1-9 in their last ten games including a loss to the Suns where they gave up 137 points and to the Mavericks on Tuesday where they lost by a score of 122-111. However, they bounced back last time out as D’Angelo Russell and Brandon Ingram played well in a revenge win over Phoenix.
Free NBA ATS Pick
The Lakers showed some flashes of promise last time out, and there are some talented young players on the roster. However, they lack consistency and need to prove they can beat teams more than once every so often.
The Lakers have struggled on the road this season and don’t have enough experience to get this one done. The Nuggets should be able to take advantage of the Lakers’ poor defense by running out to a lead and then holding on for the win.
These two teams aren’t too far apart talent-wise so it likely won’t be a blowout, but Denver is the better team and will show why in this matchup. It’s a big one for Denver, which will remain ahead in the race for the final playoff spot.
NBA Odds: Nuggets 119, Lakers 113
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