NBA Odds - Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Game Preview

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The Indiana Pacers staged a dramatic fourth quarter comeback Tuesday and nearly caught the unbeaten Warriors. Of course, falling behind by 32 points didn’t help, but they made it close only to lose for the third straight time. Miami is playing for just the seventh time on the road, the fewest in the NBA to this point.

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LOOK AHEAD

The Indiana Pacers have employed the small-ball approach this season and, for the most part, they’ve had success. And that’s a good sign when they face the Heat, who have struggled recently when opponent’s have gone small. The Wizards shrunk the Heat down to size on Monday, doing so more out of necessity. Washington was without its starting center and power forward, went small and fast, and, in the end, cut the Heat down to size. With the Wizards going small, the Heat had little choice but to matchup – at the exclusion of one of their better players, Hassan Whiteside, in the final period. It was the second week in a row an opponent downsized and defeated Miami, with the Boston Celtics doing it last week.

Indiana’s up-tempo approach was put to the test against the masters of what it is aspiring to do on Tuesday. The results were mixed and the outcome was the Pacers third straight loss, a first since opening the season 0-3. Indy was run off the court in the first half by Golden State, trailed by as many as 32 points, but staged a comeback that got them within six points in the last minute, before succumbing to the unbeaten defending champs 131-123. The Pacers’ approach is working, but it’s “light years away” from how the Warriors play, according to coach Frank Vogel.

INJURIES

Miami forward Luol Deng is expected to make his return to the lineup on the Heat’s brief two-game road trip, and if everything goes smoothly he’ll play at Indiana. Deng missed two weeks of action with what the team listed as a strained left hamstring.

Amar’e Stoudemire remains sidelined with an undisclosed illness and is in the Heat’s “rehabilitative recovery” program. He’s missed the last seven games and is questionable to play when the team embarks on its two-game road trip.

KEY MATCHUP

Paul George barely suited up last season due to a horrific leg injury suffered with Team USA in 2014. But Indiana’s top dog is playing MVP-caliber ball for the surprising Pacers, and he’s on a historic pace in terms of three-point shooting. Not Stephen Curry historic, but it’s unfair to compare anybody to the reigning MVP right now. George ranks third in threes made and second in three-pointers made per game. While Curry is on pace to smash his league record of 286 three-pointers set last season, George is on pace for 276 threes, which would be the most ever for a player not named Stephen Curry. Not only is George making a ton of threes, he’s doing it efficiently. He’s knocking triples down at a 45.4 percent clip, which isn’t too far behind Curry’s 47.2 percent mark. Those two percentages would be the highest in history for players with seven or more three-point attempts per game. George may not be on Curry’s level, but his greatness shouldn’t be overlooked. When his jumper is falling, like it is now, he’s difficult to defend.

ODDS AND PREDICTION

The Heat haven’t adapted to opponent’s small-ball approach and it cost them a pair of games over the last week. They’ll face another basketball team that has embraced the new style of play, and unless the Heat make adjustments, the same result is in store. Hassan Whiteside is such a factor in the middle, teams are forcing the Heat to matchup and that basically takes the big man out of the equation. The solution is to flip the roles. Make the opponent defend Whiteside in the block, where he’ll have a huge advantage against the Pacers. He needs to make shots, but point-blank looks have a better chance of going in than the opponent launching a barrage of threes. Coach Erik Spoelstra will figure it out, play his big man more minutes in the fourth quarter, and come close to a victory. But the Pacers’ style is working and the Heat will have no answer for George, who’s on fire.

Indiana 108, Miami 101

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