The team from South Beach still sits above .500 and in a playoff position in the Eastern Conference, but they’ve struggled of late, dropping five of their last six SU and four of their last six ATS. They’re in for another tough matchup Friday traveling north of the border to take on a Raptors’ team with the second best record in the conference.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Miami’s dropped back-to-back games and stands 3-5 ATS in its last eight. On the season, the Heat are a more respectable 20-21-1 ATS and 9-9 ATS away from home.
On the other side of the court, the hometown Raptors have bounced back from some earlier ATS struggles that saw them drop eight of 11 games. Since that time, they’ve covered four of their last five.
WHEN THE MIAMI HEAT ARE ON OFFENSE
Don’t expect a huge point output from Miami. They’re ranked No. 28 on offense and are playing a strong defense that allows just 96.9 PPG. Toronto’s holding the opposition to 43.7 percent shooting and 41.3 RPG.
Miami’s also dealing with a number of injuries, including shooting guard Goran Dragic who’s missed the last four games with a calf strain. Dragic’s 12.3 PPG put him third on the team.
For Miami to succeed, it all comes down to Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. Bosh leads the team in scoring with 18.9 PPG while Wade sits just behind at 18.1 PPG.
The Heat need to penetrate towards the basket to have any offensive success. They’re a solid shooting team up close, but are far less dominant from the perimeter.
While Bosh and Wade are the scoring leaders, center Hassan Whiteside’s the frontrunner in shooting percentage with a 61.2 percent showing from the floor. The big man also headlines the team’s rebounding with 11.4, though Bosh adds 7.8 of his own.
Overall, the Heat’s offense has been inconsistent, but over the last two games, it’s really struggled. Miami’s scored less than 80 points now in back-to-back games. The Heat have also eclipsed 100 points only once in their last six games.
Keep an eye on Bosh and Whiteside. The Raptors have strong answers at the guard position, but if the Heat are to get the win on the road—or at least cover the spread—they’ll need to exploit the loss of DeMarre Carroll and win out down low.
WHEN THE TORONTO RAPTORS ARE ON OFFENSE
While the Heat offense has been a mixed bag, the Miami defense has been its saving grace.
Miami has the second best defense in the sport, allowing 95.4 PPG and keeping the opposition shooting below 43.5 percent on field goals.
Toronto is stacked at the guard position with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. The duo combined for 61 points and 13 assists on Monday against Brooklyn. They’ve got a solid matchup to do well again on Friday considering Dragic is sidelined. Wade is a strong player, but can only do so much.
DeRozan and Lowry are each scoring over 21 PPG, trumping the totals of Wade and Bosh while Jonas Valanciunas gives them size at 7’0” along with a presence in the post.
When these teams met last in December, the Raptors came away with the 108-94 win, more than covering the spread as the underdog on the road.
In that game, DeRozan showed he couldn’t be stopped, scoring 30 to pace both teams. Perhaps just as telling James Johnson and Luis Scola combined for 33 from the forward position showing they can hold their own against Bosh, Luol Deng and Whiteside who all three combined for just 28.
Watch for the Raptors presence near the basket. If they’re able to get production outside of DeRozan and Lowry, Toronto is worth backing.
BETTING TRENDS AND MATCHUPS
Perhaps the key matchup in this game will be Whiteside versus Valanciunas. The two centers are each the third piece of their respective teams, but their production could be the lynch pin for each.
For those looking to bet on the total, note that each NBA team’s strength is in its defense. If either—or both—get off to strong offensive starts, look for the opposing defenses to adjust and drive the score back down. Jump on an inflated total if one presents itself.
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