Minnesota hosted the Thunder on Tuesday, falling 101-96, but covered the closing 10.5-point spread. The Timberwolves played Oklahoma City surprisingly well in that game, but will have a bigger challenge on Friday when they square off again, this time on the Thunder’s home floor.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Minnesota beating the spread on Monday snapped a six game ATS losing skid. The Timberwolves are still 15-23-1 ATS for the season, though they’re much better on the road at 11-6.
For Minnesota, the biggest struggle of late has been offensively. The team is averaging 98.6 points per game, but has reached that figures just twice in their last 11 games and scored fewer than 100 in 12 straight.
On the other side of the court, the Thunder are also struggling ATS, going 2-8 in their last 10. They’re a dismal 9-13 ATS at home to date.
WHEN THE MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES ARE ON OFFENSE
Minnesota got 20-point efforts from Andrew Wiggins, Shabazz Muhammad and Zach LaVine in Monday’s game against the Thunder. Of those three performances, only Wiggins came in a start, the other two came off the bench. Outside of Wiggins and a 14-point performance by Karl-Anthony Towns, the Timberwolves got just five combined points by the team’s other three starters.
Wiggins and Towns are a nice young duo to build around, but that’s what this team is doing: building.
Wiggins is the team’s leading scorer with 20.6 PPG and should get plenty of opportunities against the Thunder. Oklahoma City plays a fast-paced game. They’re allowing just a 43.2 shooting percentage from the floor, the fifth best figure in the NBA, but are giving up 101.1 PPG.
Towns has also been finding more consistency of late as he continues to adjust to the professional game.
Those two players give the Timberwolves talent up front, but it was Muhammad and LaVine off the bench that allowed Minnesota to cover the spread last time around. Another key to keeping the game close on Monday was rebounding with Minnesota actually out-rebounding the Thunder.
WHEN THE OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER ARE ON OFFENSE
The Timberwolves defense is allowing 102.5 PPG. In Monday’s game, Kevin Durant put up 30-points while Russell Westbrook recorded a double-double with 22-points and 11 assists.
Overall, the Thunder are the nation’s second most potent offense, averaging 108.7 PPG and shooting a remarkable 47.5 percent from the floor. In addition, Oklahoma City also ranks No. 3 in the NBA in rebounding with 47.2 rebounds per game.
Outside of the obvious duo of Westbrook and Durant, the Thunder have two other players with at least 11.6 PPG. Center Enes Kanter is amongst them. The 6’11” native of Istanbul hasn’t been overly consistent, but did deliver 18-points in the Thunders’ last win over Minnesota.
Kanter is also second on the team in rebounds behind Durant. Between Durant, Kanter, Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams, the team has five players averaging at least 6.4 RPG.
Kanter, Ibaka, Adams and Dion Waiters are all solid offensive players. Kanter and Adams are both shooting north of 57 percent from the floor. Ibaka is averaging 13.2 PPG and is one of the team’s better shooters from behind the arc.
Of course, it still comes down to Durant and Westbrook when all is said and done. Durant is the team’s leader in scoring with 26.6 PPG just ahead of Westbrook’s 25.4. Both are amongst the top-6 scorers in the NBA.
You can count on the starters producing. Keep track of Kanter early. If he’s having another strong game, this could be a big one for the Thunder. The rebounding game is also huge. If Oklahoma City continually wins the battle against the boards, back them with confidence.
BETTING TRENDS AND MATCHUPS
Count on the Thunder to score. They’re the second best offense in the sport, have two of the top six scorers and are going against a below average defense. Everything lines up for them.
If you are looking to play on the total, the ability of the Timberwolves to score enough on the other side and keep the game close is the key.
The same can be said for the spread. Minnesota’s best hope to cover is to keep pace as close as possible as it seems highly unlikely they can hold the Thunder below their scoring average a second straight time.
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Click here and start wagering today! The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder game is scheduled for Friday, January 15, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
