The real postseason is about to get underway. The Spurs and Thunder easily dispatched their first-round opponents, winning their games by an average of better than 22 points per game. The opening round was just a formality in advance of this Game 1 showdown between the second- and third-seeded teams in the West.
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LOOK AHEAD
The Spurs took advantage of their favorable first-round matchup against the ravaged Memphis Grizzlies and promptly dispatched them in four games. That’s given San Antonio ample time to rest and prepare for the Thunder. After easily knocking off the undermanned Griz, the West’s No. 2 seed prepared for an altogether different animal in the healthy and hungry third-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
It was hard to find much fault in the way the Spurs played against the Grizzlies, outscoring them by an average of 22 points in the series. But ball security was an issue at times. That’s a worrisome fact for coach Gregg Popovich, especially after OKC’s Russell Westbrook finished the season with better than two steals per game. Outside of a stunning Game 2 loss, the Thunder steamrolled Dallas, outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 23 points in their wins.
INJURIES
Although breaks and strains have altered one half of the Western Conference playoff bracket, the Spurs and Thunder enter their second-round meeting in relatively good health. All of the principals are accounted for: Westbrook and Kevin Durant, who have only been healthy enough to make one playoff run together since 2012, are operating at full speed.
The Spurs had six days off between games and three first-round wins by at least 23 points allowed the veteran cast to get plenty of rest since the close of the regular season.
KEY MATCHUP
In the 62 minutes Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard shared the floor this season, Leonard shot 54.5 percent from field, which is great. But overall, Leonard has had trouble in key situations. He vanished in last season’s first-round loss to the Clippers and had trouble with being too passive against the Warriors in their regular season matchups. It’s time for Leonard to become the postseason leader much like he’s done in the regular season.
Leonard will likely get the primary defensive assignment guarding Durant, and in the regular season, K.D. shot just 39.5 percent with Leonard on the floor. The Defensive Player of the Year has the length to contest Durant’s post-up fadeaways and the quickness to get his hands up when Durant tries crossover shots off the dribble. But just playing defense won’t be enough. The Spurs need Leonard to make shots because the Thunder have so much firepower.
QUICK PICK
You can make a compelling argument that his series goes five games as the Spurs dominate on account of their coaching advantage and the Thunder’s questionable defense. You can argue that the Thunder will push this to six or seven games, and could even with this thing, especially if they can steal a game in San Antonio. You can point to the dominance of the Spurs this NBA season, the size advantage for OKC, or the skill advantage for San Antonio.
In other words, the series should be close with the abundance of talent on the court. It’s hard to overlook San Antonio’s experience and homecourt superiority as well as OKC’s proclivity to blowing leads late in games. Leonard will have a big chore in slowing down Durant and will bother him enough to make a difference.
NBA Odds: San Antonio 108, Oklahoma City 101
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