The Golden State Warriors boast the best record in the NBA for the second straight season, but have been far from unbeatable they appeared to be for much of last season despite a better roster—at least on paper. Still, they’re in position to capture their second win against the Detroit Pistons in the last few weeks on Thursday night as they host them in what amounts to a rematch of sorts in Oakland.
This war on the floor will go down Thursday, January 12, 2017, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Oracle Arena. The game will be televised live on TNT.
We'll have NBA odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the NBA Thursday schedule.
Odds Analysis
The Warriors are, once again, a great team, but not quite as great as many seem to think. The odds makers have continually overestimated this team this year as they’ve failed to cover the spread in 23 of 38 games to date. More recently, Golden State is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and has not covered now in five straight.
Detroit has won three of their last four games, though they’re just 2-2 ATS in that time. They’ve struggled to beat the spread themselves, particularly on the road where they’re 8-12 ATS. Detroit is 4-8 ATS overall in their last 12 games. Though one of those victories ATS did come against the Warriors who beat Detroit 119-113 when they met in The Palace of Auburn Hills just before Christmas.
Last Meeting
These two teams last met on December 23 with the Pistons playing the Warriors surprisingly close in what ended up being a six-point differential in favor of Golden State despite the Warriors entering play as 7.5-point favorites on the road.
In that game, Kevin Durant led the team in scoring, shooting 13-for-18, including going 3-for-4 from three-point range for 32-points. That was enough to led both teams in scoring, but the dynamic guard duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson was matched point-for-point by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson.
All in all, the game ended up being a bit of a shootout and that’s exactly the type of game that favors the Warriors in the end. They’re a fast-paced team with a high offensive efficiency which showed the last time these teams met. In that game, Golden State shot 55.8-percent from the floor and were nearly perfect from the free-throw line shooting 22-for-24. Honestly, it was the free throw shooting that separated these teams. Detroit shot just 17-for-28 from the line.
Interestingly, Detroit held the advantage over Golden State in fast break points with 19 to 12 and in points in the paint. Meanwhile, we already noted how their starting guards matched the starting backcourt for the Warriors point for point with 42 each.
Playing such a tight game and actually holding a two-point lead at the half and being up by as much as six at one point in the game helps Detroit realize they can hang with the Warriors, but ultimately Golden State won and on Thursday they’ll get a chance to play the Pistons in Oakland where they’re an even better team.
Player to Watch
The Warriors are a team that does look for plenty of shots on the parameter with Curry, Thompson and even Durant. The trio will face a difficult backcourt that does a good job defending the outside, but we already saw them shoot well inside and out against this Detroit team.
The only other place that the Pistons may have the edge is at center where Andre Drummond has a favorable matchup against Zaza Pachulia. That makes Drummond the key player to watch.
Drummond was 6-for-7 shooting the last time these teams met, but was just 3-for-9 on free throws for 15 total points. He’ll need to factor in as a bigger part of the game if the Pistons are to get the upset—or even cover the spread. They’ll need to find a way to get Drummond the ball as he’s shooting 52.4-percent from the floor. He’s also nabbing 13.5 rebounds per game. He’ll look to gobble up the rounds though between Durant, Pachulia and Draymond Green, the Warriors are a strong team on the boards.
Free NBA ATS Picks
The Warriors will win this game by a wider margin than they did against Detroit a few days before Christmas.
Golden State are often favored by a very wide spread at home. If that spread gets too far out of hand, jump on the Pistons to cover as they were able to keep the game close in their last meeting, but overall don’t expect them to have as much success this time around.
Detroit is lagging behind Golden State substantially in most aspects of the game. The Pistons simply don’t have the firepower to matchup up with the Warriors and haven’t shown the ability to consistently play at a high level. The Warriors are a team of superstars that manages to play as a unit.
NBA Odds: Warriors 121, Pistons 105
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