If Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge or both are sideline for this matchup, it will have a great effect on the spread. The Spurs will still likely be favored since they are playing at home, but it won’t be by very much.
The Blazers are in a battle for the eighth seed in the Western Conference and need to take advantage of this scenario if they are playing a Spurs team missing some of its stars.
Don't miss the hardwood action from the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas at 10:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 15, 2017. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.
We'll have NBA odds available for this and every game on the NBA Wednesday schedule.
Odds Analysis
The Spurs are 51-14 straight up and 34-30-1 against the spread. San Antonio has played in 30 home games this season and has covered in half of them. The Spurs are 30-29-1 against the spread as the favorite.
The Trail Blazers are 28-36 straight up and 26-38 against the spread. Portland has done poorly on the road this season, covering in only 12 of 33 attempts. The Trail Blazers are 11-18 against the spread as the underdog on the season.
Injury Report
The Spurs were missing star swingman Kawhi Leonard and star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge last time out against the Warriors, but still won easily as Golden State rested Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala.
This time will be tougher as the Blazers will be playing with their full complement of key pieces. Leonard suffered a concussion a few games ago against Oklahoma City and is going through the protocol to get cleared. It’s unknown when he will be back on the court.
Leonard is an MVP candidate as he is averaging 26.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game on the year. He is also a lockdown defender, and all of his skills will be missed if he can’t play.
Aldridge missed the Golden State game with minor heart arrhythmia, another ailment that is hard to tell when it will clear. He is averaging 17.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per contest. If Aldridge and Leonard both sit, the Blazers should be able to be competitive in this one.
The status for both is unclear so keep an eye on their availability as the game gets closer.
Key Stat
14. That’s the number of losses the Spurs have on the season, which is the same as the Warriors. Golden State seemed to be a shoo-in for the top spot in the West, but the injury to Kevin Durant has sent them into a tumble, and San Antonio has taken advantage.
If the Spurs were fully healthy, they would be in good shape to overtake Golden State down the stretch, but it’s more complicated with Aldridge and Leonard out. This is the type of game that they would usually be large favorites, but San Antonio has enough depth and balance that they could still drop the Blazers and keep pace with the Warriors.
Free NBA ATS Pick
This game is hard to peg if Leonard and Aldridge both sit, since it is so rare for a team to be without its top two stars. Check out the game against the Hawks earlier in the week to see how the Spurs look if both have to sit.
San Antonio still has a bevy of other good players, as Pau Gasol, Danny Green, Patty Mills and Manu Ginobili are among the veterans who have stepped up recently.
The Blazers have a great backcourt, but the Spurs play such good defense that it may be hard for Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to get a lot of open shots.
If this game was in Portland, the Blazers would be the choice, but the home court advantage could be the difference in what may be a nail-biter. The pick is the Spurs at home, with the outcome slim unless Leonard, Aldridge or both are able to suit up.
NBA Odds: Spurs 104, Trail Blazers 100
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