It's a little surprising that the San Antonio Spurs have lost two straight road games, albeit against the two teams who were in the NBA Finals last season. Friday's road test against the Dallas Mavericks should be a lot easier, but that doesn't mean it's a slam dunk.
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SCHEDULING
There really aren't any potential scheduling snags that live bettors should be all that worried about here. The Spurs have to play against New Orleans on Wednesday night at home and have a day off before starting this back-to-back against Dallas and the Lakers.
The Mavs are also starting a back-to-back here with Memphis coming up on Saturday. Their previous game is against the Heat at home on Wednesday.
KEY MATCHUP
The Mavs have got to find some offense from somewhere in this game. They've been completely stymied twice, scoring in the 80s both times and getting beyond 23 points in just one quarter of the four.
A big part of the offense for the Mavs is getting Dirk Nowitzki to stretch the floor. The German star isn't nearly the stud he used to be, but he's still good for 17.5 points per game and almost two triples per night. In the two games against the Spurs, Nowitzki didn't make a single three, and he totaled just 17 points.
When Dirk is down, the rest of this offense seems to go with it. The last six times Nowitzki either didn't play or scored fewer than a dozen points, the Spurs have averaged 90.2 points per game. They've averaged over 103 points per game in that stretch when he scores at least 12.
That said, Tim Duncan isn't going to be around in this one in all likelihood because of his knee injury, and that could hurt the San Antonio defense. LaMarcus Aldridge could certainly do the job on Nowitzki from the outside, while Kawhi Leonard could as well, even though the latter is giving up nearly a half foot in height to the German.
If Nowitzki can win this matchup and get back to his normal scoring ways, the Mavericks will stand a much better chance than they have of late against the Spurs in two defeats.
KEY STATS & TRENDS
The Spurs allowed 117 and 120 in two road games against the Cavaliers and Warriors, but those are the only two games since January 2 in which they've allowed 100 or more points.
Almost quietly, San Antonio has the best defense in the league at 91.2 points per game allowed. To top it all off, the Spurs are also No. 1 in the NBA in shooting percentage at 49.1 percent, and it's incredibly rare for them to go on long shooting droughts which can ruin live bettors.
The Mavs have been awesome at home for bettors, and live bettors should certainly take note.
They've covered their last six here at the AAC, including games against Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Boston. Three of the last six have gone to overtime, and the game against the Thunder which was settled in 48 minutes was decided by just three points, so there's a good chance if recent history repeats itself, that this is going to be a tight affair in the fourth.
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