Almost quietly, the Sacramento Kings have crept around at the back end of the NBA playoff picture in the Western Conference. It's still going to take a really good run to get into meaningful May basketball, and an upset in a game like this one on Wednesday against the San Antonio Spurs certainly would help matters out.
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SCHEDULING
Live bettors can't like this spot for the Kings. Not only is Sacramento playing a back-to-back against one of the toughest teams in the NBA, but it has to do so a night after playing in Denver, of all places. The thin air and fast pace is sure to wear on the Kings, and there's a great chance there will be a long period of time in this game where they're just incredibly flat as a result.
Sacramento, to its credit, is 7-6 ATS this year when playing the second leg of a back-to-back, but has been outscored by 9.8 points per game in said situations.
The Spurs are playing the front end of a back-to-back on Wednesday following two days off in a row during the Rodeo Road Trip. It's entirely possible that Gregg Popovich rests some players in Utah on Thursday night, but we can't picture him doing so on Wednesday with his most recent game coming on Sunday afternoon.
KEY MATCHUP
The Kings have really gotten better offensive play than you might think out of their point guards of late. On Saturday against a Denver team without a truly strong point guard of its own, Rajon Rondo and Darren Collison combined to score 41 points, while Rondo had 10 boards and nine assists.
We're not suggesting that the Rondo/Collison combination is going to outplay the great Tony Parker, but that's going to be the key in this game for live bettors. If the Kings’ guards are out of sorts, that probably means Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins are spending too much time trying to create shots on their own and making poor decisions. If Rondo and Collison have this offense under control though, this could be a dangerous game for San Antonio's live bettors.
KEY STATS & TRENDS
The overs are starting to pour in on the Kings. They've played to five straight dating back to February 5, including playing consecutive games into the mid-220s against Denver and Philly to kick off the second half.
Live bettors though, need to look at how bad this Sacramento defense has been against legitimate teams of late. The last three Kings opponents which are at least 10 games above .500 scored 120 – Cleveland - 128 - Boston - and 121 – Memphis - against them.
The Spurs have scored 118 and 119 in their last two games after starting off the second half of the year with a dud in a 105-86 loss against the Clippers.
San Antonio's strong cover ways have finally come to a close, and NBA live bettors need to be aware that more market correction could be on the way. The Spurs beat the Suns and Lakers by seven and six points respectively on nights in which they were double-digit road favorites.
We expect to see San Antonio favored by at least 10 once again in this game as well.
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